Vintage Decks are scary, so we are trying to be ready for them. This list is weakest vs UW, strongest vs G Tron.
I think either 0 Ouphe (give up on the matchup) or 3 Ouphe (have a chance) are good numbers.
The cards closest to being cut are 2nd Forest, Dryad Arbor, 3rd Evolution, 3rd Path, and all the Ouphes.
The cards that just barely didn't make the cut are Hushbringer, 4th Horizon Canopy, and Chameleon Colossus.
3-2 (7-5). Sad to lose to Bad Tron and Shadow but you can't always draw Veil of Summer.
OO Burn (T3, T8) Lifetime 12-9 vs Burn
OXO Goblins (T4, T4) Lifetime 1-1 vs Goblins
OXX Bad Tron (T4) Lifetime 1-1 vs Bad Tron
XX Shadow Lifetime 1-11 vs Shadow (!)
OO Burn (T5, T5) Lifetime 13-9 vs Burn
This is super close.
No
Bottom the Noble. Druid dies T2, win T3.
-2 Vizier -1 Lunge -1 Once -2 Evolution +3 Path +1 Caterpillar +2 Forgetender
Yup.
T1 Giver gets a Seal of Fire. T2 Forgetender slows things down, and opponent decides not to cast their K Return. So I play T4 Shalai. It dies to two things.
Opponent plays their last spell out of their hand.
From here, we can let the Eidolon stay alive forever -- call for Shalai and cast it going to 4, Seal of Fire takes us to 2, and we win with one attack from Shalai since opponent is locked under their own Eidolon.
In total, opponent takes 16 damage from their Eidolon and I kill them T8 with Shalai, at 1 life.
We should prey on decks like this that are a little too cute and clunky for Modern.
Nope
Awkward keep, bottoming Lunge.
This gets an Arbor and Evolves it T3 into a Druid; opponent kills it with a Munitions Expert. Lunge wins T4.
Opponent plays red and black interaction, but mostly red.
+2 Forgetender +2 Veil -2 Once Upon a Time -2 Evolution
Feeling pretty safe with all these Instants up. So I pass instead of playing T2 Druid.
Not safe. Opponent plays Sling-Gang into Sling-Gang. I die through Veil on T4.
+1 Once -1 Veil
No
This is great
Once Upon a Time is a Vizier, so we can Call for Druid. Then we hold up Vines T3, and win T4.
Opponent is salty as all hell and it felt horrible to lose to this particular human. As far as blue Tron goes though, it is what it is -- tron but without the consistency of mono-green or the redundancy of eldrazi.
Yup
What do you take here?
I took Druid.
T2 Evolution gets Remanded.
T3 Repeal and I kill the Druid in response.
T4 win with Lunge.
Opponent makes me click the Shalai for 21 activations, earning a place in the Hall of Not Valuing Your Time.
+4 Veil +1 Caterpillar -3 Evolution -1 Lunge -1 Once
Nope
This is tempting -- I keep and bottom Lunge.
Once Upon a Time is a Razorverge Thicket and I draw a Veil. Opponent Repeals my Noble, which is a Time Walk. Then a Spatial Contortion kills it.
No
Ok -- bottom the Lunge.
Veil counters a Repeal but not the followup Spatial Contortion. My T4 Druid also gets Repealed. I play Druid T5 with Veil backup and opponent plays Karn for Needle.
I cast Shalai T6.
Opponent gets a Bridge and then plays another Karn for Lattice. My Shalai can't attack and my two nobles can't attack into the 3/3 Bridge.
Dead T8.
This is apparently Shadow upgraded with modal Counterspell // Terminate. I'm never beating this on the draw, ever.
Yup
My Once Upon a Time is a Giver of Runes.
Opponent cycles two Street Wraiths and plays a Once Upon a Time, then a T2 Tarmogoyf. This is not an impressive start.
Their T3 Plague Engineer works well enough, I guess. Sigh. Okay. Finale for second Giver and Call for T4 Shalai -- wait no, Thoughtseize into Drown in the Loch ruin all of that.
-2 Noble -2 Lunge -3 Evolution -1 Once +3 Path +1 Lightcaster +4 Veil -------- this is supposed to include -2 Vizier but I failed badly
No, not keeping non-veil hands like this
At least this has upside:
Bottom Lightcaster; my starting hand is getting discarded anyway.
T1 Giver gets a Push. No Veil, die to Brutality.
Does Mulling to 5 looking for a Veil make sense?
Again?!
Kept this:
T1 Giver. Opponent suspends a Rift Bolt and I slam Druid. Who knows. Rift Bolt kills the Giver.
Opponent lets me go to my main phase before killing the Druid with their Searing Blaze, so I use the mana for T3 Shalai + Noble. They Blaze the Druid in response but then my T4 is Finale for Ranger-Captain. They kill the Shalai and I hit them to 5 with the Ranger-Captain.
They attack with Eidolon, and then this is happening.
By my calculation, they need two more spells to kill me after this and they can't cast those spells. So I don't sac Ranger-Captain.
It turns out I'm right; win T5.
-2 Vizier -2 Lunge -1 Once -1 Call +2 Forgetender +3 Path +1 Caterpillar
Haha. This hand actually reminds me that I may want to board down on Evolutions in this matchup. My 2-drops usually aren't alive to evolve. I kept it anyway.
The Once Upon a Time is a Druid.
T1 Giver gets Skewered. T2 Druid gets Rift Bolted. T3 I was going to Druid, but I have a Forgetender instead. My T4 Druid survives their Searing Blaze because of it.
The two Evolutions actually win the game T5, with the Twice Upon a Time finding something to evolve into a Ranger-Captain. So maybe I was a bit hasty there.
3-2.
Not bad. Not sure what to do about the bad matchups (Shadow, UW, Vintage Deck).