restrictions have been put in place in many cities.26 The extent to which the measures to counter the spread of COVID-19 or the pandemic itself are affecting the harvest is not yet clear. The harvest relies on a very large number of seasonal workers, who often migrate from other parts of the country or from neighbouring countries such as Pakistan.27 A shortage of poppy lancers has already been observed in the western and southern provinces of the country, mainly due to the closure of official border crossings with Pakistan. However, women in poppy-growing households appear to be increasingly engaged in the poppy lancing process, as do people who lost their jobs due to the COVID-19 crisis. The payment of people employed for the 2020 harvest also seems to have increased in comparison with previous years, from about one sixth to one third of the harvest for all lancers employed, which suggests a possible shortage of lancers and/or high yields.28 Heroin manufacture may also be affected. The most important chemical in heroin manufacture, acetic anhydride, is not manufactured in Afghanistan and is not legally available. It reaches Afghanistan exclusively by being diverted from legal markets and then being trafficked to the country by land. Local traffickers maintain some stocks of acetic anhydride29 and a short-term shortage can probably be overcome, but once those supplies are used up, heroin manufacture within the country may slow down. A shortage of acetic anhydride may not necessarily be caused by border closures in and around Afghanistan, but by reduced opportunities to obtain the substance from licit markets such as those in China and the European Union. 30 Recent trends in the price of acetic anhydride in Afghanistan are not currently giving a firm indication of possible supply disruptions or other changes in the market: one set of prices indicate an increase and therefore a potential shortage, while others indicate a decrease, which would contraindicate a shortage. Lastly, the effect will depend on the reaction of non-state actors and local power brokers, such as the Taliban. Media reports 31 have indicated that the Taliban largely support the COVID-19 restrictive 26 Available at https://tolonews.com/index.php/health/covid-19-govt-limits-residents-movement-herat. 27 The harvest requires a considerable work force. For example, in 2018, Afghan farmers employed the equivalent of roughly 190,700 full-time workers to help them weed and harvest opium poppy. 28 UNODC field office assessment. 29 UNODC, “Voices of the Quchaqbar” – Understanding Opiate Trafficking in Afghanistan from the Perspective of Drug Traffickers, forthcoming. 30 China and European countries are named as points of origin of acetic anhydride seized in Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Available at https://www.incb.org/incb/en/precursors/technical_reports/precursors-technical-reports.html. 31 Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-taliban-ms-13-drug-cartelsgangs/2020/04/13/83aa07ac-79c2-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 17 measures and are reportedly enforcing quarantines for migrants and distributing gloves, masks and information on how to avoid spreading the virus. It has also been reported that the Taliban are enforcing social distancing, by cancelling public gatherings and weddings and asking people to pray at home rather than at mosques. 32 If and how non-state actors will enforce measures that can potentially affect the 2020 opium harvest and heroin manufacture is yet to be seen. The situation in Afghanistan is closely monitored through frequent updates on the price of opium and acetic anhydride (monthly), seizures and law enforcement activity in the country and neighbouring countries. UNODC is also conducting surveys among farmers on the 2020 opium harvest. Prices of two different qualities of acetic anhydride, January 2016 to March 2020 Source: Afghanistan drug price monitoring system, Ministry of Interior, Afghanistan. No further information on the qualities of acetic anhydride are available. Data from the past has shown that acetic anhydride prices react to market fluctuations, such as, for example, those resulting from the record harvest of 2017. Myanmar Opiates produced in Myanmar mostly supply countries in East and South-East Asia and in Oceania. The 2020 harvest in Myanmar was not affected by the COVID-19 crisis as it took place at the beginning of the year. Reports33 from the field indicate, however, that opium farmers and traffickers are finding it difficult to sell their products to buyers from abroad. With China having been the first country affected by the virus and related restrictions, its neighbouring and adjacent countries were affected by the situation comparatively early on and the impact on the drug market may be already visible. Reports from the field indicate a sharp drop in opium prices in March 2020, which could be an indication of a reduction in demand by buyers. However, other dynamics in the local drug markets could also have contributed to the drop: at the time of writing, a large-scale international counter-narcotics operation among the Mekong countries is being conducted, which may affect local drug markets. 34 Myanmar is also a 32 Al Jazeera.