aggravation of illicit drug economies worldwide. The economic downturn may lead to • Reduced drug budgets available for measures aimed at reducing demand and supply of drugs. • Reduced economic opportunities for the population and increasing unemployment rates, which may increase participation in illegal activities such as drug trafficking. • Increased corruption facilitated by the expected budgetary difficulties of countries and decreasing opportunities for licit employment. • Increased substance use and aggravated harmful drug use due to the deterioration in the socioeconomic situation. People with drug use disorders may increase their involvement in criminal activities to pay for drugs unless sufficient treatment for such groups can be provided. • Increased drug production and drug trafficking may be affecting terrorist organizations that benefit financially from facilitating trafficking in drugs and other illicit materials. Reports22 have indicated that some non-state actors are already trying to seize opportunities to bolster their legitimacy by exploiting the COVID-19 crisis. 19 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 1: The Great Lockdown (2020). 20 World Bank, Part I. COVID-19: Impact and Response (2020). 21 Ibid. 22 Afghanistan: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, available at https://acleddata.com/2020/04/16/cdt-spotlight-talibanin-afghanistan/; Italy: available at https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/19/europe/italy-mafia-exploiting-coronavirus-crisis-aidintl/index.html; Mexico: available at https://www.am.com.mx/opinion/-El-crimen-organizado-durante-la-pandemia-20200414- 0007.html. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 15 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 MEASURES ON DRUG PRODUCTION Drug markets are characterized by a variety of products with a dynamic combination of substances. Globally, the four largest drug markets are cannabis, cocaine, opiates (mainly heroin) and synthetic drugs, each with a different geographical spread. The production of heroin and cocaine is concentrated in few countries, while synthetic drugs and cannabis are produced in virtually all countries. 23 The measures aimed at restricting the spread of COVID-19 may affect drug production differently, given its peculiar characteristics in terms of manufacturing modalities (concentrated in few countries or taking place in many) and inputs (labour force and chemicals). The measures can affect drug production directly, for example, by reducing the workforce available for harvest; or indirectly, for example, by disrupting the supply chain of precursor chemicals, which are often diverted from licit markets. The sale of drugs at the source of production can also be affected. If buyers cannot reach remote locations where drugs are cultivated or produced because of mobility restrictions, the overall supply will be affected. COVID-19 measures have the potential to disrupt drug supply from source countries in the short term Opiates More than 95 per cent of all illicit opiates (opium, morphine, heroin) originate in only three countries: Afghanistan (82 per cent), Mexico (8 per cent) and Myanmar (7 per cent).24 In all three countries, illicit opium poppy is grown in fields and harvesting opium is a labour-intensive activity. Once poppy capsules mature in the fields, farmers often require external labour to “lance” them repeatedly over a period of 10 to 14 days, an operation that can require a sizeable work force. 25 Once opium is collected, its active ingredient, morphine, is extracted and converted into heroin by using chemicals under international control, such as acetic anhydride. The COVID-19 crisis may hinder opium production and heroin manufacture in several ways: if mobility restrictions are enforced, the availability of workers to collect opium gum is reduced. Moving harvested opium to heroin laboratories may also become more challenging and, as a result of the reduction in trade and stricter border controls, those laboratories may face shortages of the imported chemicals required to produce heroin. Moreover, potential buyers may not be able to reach the location where opiates are on sale. 23 Percentages relate to the 2018 global production of opium: UNODC, World Drug Report 2019: Global Overview of Drug Demand and Supply (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.19.XI.8 (Booklet 2)), pp. 45-46. 24 UNODC, World Drug Report 2019, estimated shares of oven-dry opium production of global total. 25 For example, in 2018, Afghan farmers employed the equivalent of roughly 190,700 full-time workers to help them weed and harvest opium poppy; see UNODC/MCN, Afghanistan Opium Survey Report 2018, Challenges to Sustainable Development, Peace and Security (July 2019). COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 16 Afghanistan Afghanistan closed its borders for individual travel to the Islamic Republic of Iran at the end of February 2020 and to Pakistan at the end of March 2020, and imposed restrictions on free movement within the country at the end of March 2020. Border crossings are open for cargo and commercial traffic. The 2020 opium harvest takes place between the end of March and June. At the time of writing, cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in all opium poppy-cultivating provinces and movement