borders and a decline in overall world trade can disrupt the supply chains of drug markets and may diversify drug trafficking patterns and routes. Sudden changes in the supply and availability of drugs can in turn trigger changes in consumption behaviours. The following section explores the potential impact of different immediate consequences of measures to counter the spread of COVID-19 on the three key elements of the drug markets: drug production, drug trafficking and drug consumption. All three steps can affect drug markets at the global, regional and local levels. The effects may vary greatly depending on local manifestations of COVID-19 measures and regional characteristics of drug markets. 1. Mobility restrictions of individuals Very strict and far-reaching restrictions on personal movement can make cross-border trafficking in drugs and precursor chemicals more difficult than beforehand and limit the distribution of drugs to users at the retail level. The measures implemented by Governments to counter the spread of COVID-19 comprise a wide range of approaches, from prohibiting border crossings, while allowing domestic travel, to moderateto-strict shelter-in-place orders, or a complete lockdown of all activities, including suspension of essential services other than for emergencies. In many countries, the cross-border movement of private citizens has come to a complete halt. There is evidence that these measures have disrupted cross-border drug trafficking and the domestic distribution of drugs at least partially. The intensity of the restrictive measures has defined the intensity of the disruption. In countries where most drugs are trafficked across illegal or informal border crossings, if curfews are not sufficiently enforced, the impact may be smaller than in situations where mobility restrictions are strictly enforced. Countries with very strict mobility restrictions have experienced a decreased in the availability of drugs at the street level, with reduced street purity and higher prices (e.g., Czechia, Italy, 5 the Islamic Republic of Iran6 and the United Kingdom). Other countries, in the Middle East and North Africa, 7 for example, have seen no or only limited reductions in drug availability at the retail level. Reports from North Macedonia and Nigeria8 show that drug traffickers have adopted novel ways of overcoming the restrictions and continue supplying users with drugs. Cross-border trafficking may be strongly affected by the mobility restrictions in countries where substances are mostly trafficked by air couriers (in corpore, 9 or using body packs), such as methamphetamines in the Republic of Korea, or where significant quantities of drugs are trafficked by air, as in the case of the trafficking of cocaine to Europe. In such cases, given the restrictions imposed 5 Ministry of Interior, Italy. See also https://www.facebook.com/drugreporter/videos/745122862689260/. 6 Islamic Republic News Agency. Available at https://www.irna.ir/news/83740144/داد-ھشدار-مخدر-مواد-کنندگان-مصرف-بھ-پلیس. 7 UNODC field office assessment. 8 UNODC field office assessment. 9 Includes swallowing, anal and vaginal concealment. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 12 on air traffic almost everywhere, a sudden cease in cross-border trafficking or a change in different trafficking methods can be expected. 2. Reduction in global trade in commodities Drugs are often concealed and transported alongside legal products, for example, in maritime containers or modified lorries. An overall reduction in legal trade may affect drug supply as it makes it more challenging for drug trafficking groups to identify suitable trafficking routes and easier for authorities to intercept illicit shipments.10 The World Trade Organization expects a sharp downturn in world merchandise trade over the course of 2020 due to the disruption of supply chains and an economic recession.11 China’s exports fell by 17.2 per cent during January and February 2020 compared with the same period in 2019. 12 The reduction in supply of goods from China and the subsequent reduction in demand from countries in Europe and other regions where lockdowns have been put in place, have caused a visible reduction in maritime trade,13 and it is thought that the COVID-19 crisis will lead to a significant reduction in overall imports and exports.14 The impact of a reduction in global trade is most likely to affect substances that are transported alongside licit goods and services and along legal trade routes. In the case of specialized transport, such as yachts and other modified boats for transatlantic cocaine trafficking, or fishing boats for trafficking synthetic drugs in South-East Asia, the reduction in licit trade will have a comparatively smaller impact. A reduction in trading in goods may have an effect on how heroin is trafficked from the main source, Afghanistan, to the main destination markets in Europe. Heroin is often transported via land transit in bulk on cargo trucks, with licit trade frequently being used to conceal shipments. The main land routes involve numerous border crossings, and a reduction in the transport of licit goods may lead to increased scrutiny by border authorities. If these changes disrupt established trafficking routes, drug trafficking groups will quickly adjust to the situation by changing routes, using unofficial border crossings and