on the severity of the restrictions imposed during the crisis: • changing modes of transportation and trafficking routes to less risky (still open) routes, or to exploit weaknesses in border controls; • increasingly using alternative trafficking modes, such as the darknet and postal services for actual drug shipments; and • stockpiling drugs and waiting for restrictions to be lifted if drugs cannot be moved or sold, in which case, the market will be over-supplied once the COVID-19 measures are suspended. Impact may vary greatly depending on the modes of transportation used before the COVID-19 crisis Drugs are trafficked in very different ways depending on the type of drug and its geographical reach. Data recorded in the UNODC Drugs Monitoring Platform show that cocaine-type drugs are predominantly seized at sea (maritime transport) in contrast to opiates, which are mostly seized in vehicles (land transport). Synthetic drugs are often trafficked by air as well, with some countries being supplied with certain substances almost exclusively by air couriers. The biggest impact on drug trafficking can thus be expected in countries where substances are predominantly, or at least in large proportions, trafficked by air passengers (in corpore, using body packs, or concealed in personal luggage). Given the almost universal restrictions imposed on air traffic, the supply of such drugs may be completely disrupted in those countries, in the short term at least, until drug traffickers adapt and change trafficking modes. This may affect synthetic drugs trafficked to 73 U.S. Department of State, “U.S. and Afghanistan Announce $25.7 Million in Good Performers Initiative Awards for Provincial Counternarcotics Achievements”, November 2010. Available at (https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2010/11/150762.htm). 74 UNODC, World Drug Report 2012 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.12.XI.1). 75 UNODC/DEVIDA Peru, 2018 Perú Monitoreo de Cultivos de Coca 2017, December 2018. 76 UNODC field office assessment. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 26 countries in South-East Asia, such as the Republic of Korea or Japan, and in Oceania, such as Australia.77 Modes of transport of trafficking methamphetamines in the Republic of Korea, 2017–2019 Source: Korea Customs Service. The disruption may lead air trafficking to be replaced where possible by drug distribution by mail. In Europe, some cocaine is also trafficked by air using couriers78 and the drastic restrictions on civil aviation have most likely led to a shift to other trafficking modes. Belgian authorities have indicated that the reduction in air traffic may have already led to changes in how cocaine is being trafficked and have observed an increase in direct shipments by sea cargo from South America to Europe.79 Overall, the disruption of cocaine trafficking from the ports of origin or transit in Latin America to the destination ports in Europe may be limited. Indeed, relatively recent large seizures of cocaine in European ports demonstrate that trafficking of large shipments of cocaine is still ongoing. Cross-border trafficking of heroin relies mostly on road transportation using commercial and private vehicles driven from the drug’s main source, Afghanistan, to its main destination markets in Europe. An exception is the southern route, which includes maritime trafficking via the Indian Ocean from the southern parts of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. The impact of the COVID-19 measures on heroin trafficking therefore depends a great deal on countries’ law enforcement efforts and the continuing accessibility of the trafficking routes.