international trade resulting from the pandemic could also lead to a shortage in the supply of acetic anhydride, a precursor vital to the manufacture of heroin, which is not produced in Afghanistan. Such a shortage could lead to a reduction in the manufacturing of heroin or push it outside the country or even the region. In Myanmar, there are indications that the 2020 opium harvest, which was concluded before the onset of the pandemic, faces a shortage of buyers possibly because of the related restrictions of movement. There are no indications to date of measures to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus having an impact on opium production in Mexico. Measures are impeding cocaine production in the short term but a resurgence is likely in the event of economic crisis Reports from Colombia indicate that law enforcement pressure has increased during the pandemic and that the coca bush eradication campaign is continuing as planned. Cocaine production appears to be being impeded, as producers, especially in eastern Colombia, are suffering from a shortage of gasoline, which was previously smuggled from the Bolivarian republic of Venezuela and is essential in cocaine production. In the Plurinational State of Bolivia, political turbulence in late 2019 and the recent challenges related to the spread of COVID-19 appear to be limiting the ability of state authorities to control coca bush cultivation, which could lead to an increase in its cultivation. In Peru, a drop in the price of cocaine is indicative of a reduction in trafficking opportunities and may discourage coca bush cultivation in the short-term, although the looming economic crisis may lead more farmers to increase or take up coca cultivation in all the major cocaine-producing countries. Reduced trade is limiting the availability of precursors for synthetic drugs in some regions Synthetic drugs can be produced in virtually every country. The COVID-19 measures could have an effect on synthetic drug production if they lead to a reduction in the availability of precursor COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 3 substances that are either diverted from the legal trade or produced illicitly. Where precursor chemicals are supplied from within a region and trafficking has not been impeded (for example, in South-East Asia), the production of synthetic drugs is only marginally affected by the restrictions stemming from the measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Also, where there is domestic manufacture using domestic precursors, as is the case of mephedrone and other popular synthetic drugs in the Russian Federation, no major impact on the domestic drug market is visible. The largescale illicit production of synthetic drugs using precursors imported from other regions is more likely to be affected. Indeed, there are reports that the reduction in trade from South-East Asia has limited the supply of chemical precursors in Mexico, where it seems to have disrupted the manufacture of methamphetamine and fentanyl, as well as in Lebanon and Syria, where it is affecting the manufacture of amphetamine-type stimulants, in particular of “captagon”. In Czechia, the closing of the international borders has led to a reduction in the availability of precursors and a shortage of methamphetamine is expected. Drug trafficking Drug trafficking by air is likely to be completely disrupted by the restrictions imposed on air travel The trafficking of different drugs has been impacted to varying extents by the restrictions in movement and closure of borders imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, depending on how drugs were trafficked before the pandemic. Heroin is mostly trafficked by land, often alongside legal cargo, whereas cocaine is mostly trafficked by sea, also using non-commercial craft such as specialised boats and yachts. Synthetic drugs tend to be trafficked by air, with certain substances reaching some countries in large proportions, which is carried out by air couriers using body packs or concealing drugs in their personal luggage. The biggest impact on drug trafficking can thus be expected in countries where large proportions of drugs are trafficked by air. Given the almost universal restrictions imposed on air traffic, the supply of drugs by air may be completely disrupted. This is likely to have a particularly drastic effect on the trafficking of synthetic drugs, not least methamphetamine, to countries in South-East Asia, such as the Republic of Korea and Japan, and in Oceania, such as Australia, as well as on the cocaine trafficking that relied on commercial flights prior to the pandemic. Modes of transportation, by substance (as a percentage of weight seized), UNODC Drugs Monitoring Platform, January 2017–April 2020 Source: UNODC Drugs Monitoring Platform. 56% 45% 8% 92% 37% 54% 88% 7% 6% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ATS Cannabis-type Cocaine-type Opioids Vehicle/Land Sea transport Air Mail COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 4 Signs of increased use of maritime routes to traffic heroin to Europe Reports from the main heroin trafficking routes indicate that the COVID-19 measures may have increased the risk of interception when the drug is trafficked by land as such shipments may now be intercepted more frequently than those trafficked by other modes of transport. Recent significant seizures of opiates in