restricting the movement of people but also of basic consumer goods due to logistical and trade constraints in Afghanistan, the largest producer of opium poppy worldwide. Prices of key food items such as wheat, wheat flour and cooking oil increased by up to 20 per cent during March-April 2020. To make matters worse, Afghanistan suffers from a wheat deficit, which is offset by imports, primarily from Kazakhstan; however, as a precautionary measure to minimize the economic impact of the pandemic, Kazakhstan has introduced an overall export cap, which is expected to create further significant increases in food prices in Afghanistan.65 Such increases will be felt the most by vulnerable populations, as well as those already depending on humanitarian assistance. More than 80 per cent of people are living on less than the international applied poverty line ($1.90 per day).66 The COVID-19 crisis has come on top of a string of atypical weather years, including a widespread drought in 2018 and high seasonal floods in 2019, which had already resulted in high levels of hunger and malnutrition and escalating rates of household debt. These recent climate-related shocks have placed Afghanistan on the verge of famine and made the country extremely vulnerable to other shocks, such as the current pandemic.67 61 As stated by the UNODC’s field office of Bolivia. 62 Network of Researchers in International Affairs. 2019. “No More Opium for the Masses. From the US Fentanyl Boom to the Mexican Opium Crisis: Opportunities Amidst Violence?”. 63 BBC, 22 April 2020, “Covid-19 Security: Mexico cartels 'fill void' left by government in pandemic”. 64 The New York Post, 28 March 2020, “Coronavirus pandemic drives up price of heroin, meth and fentanyl”. 65 OCHA, “Afghanistan. Brief: COVID-19. Number 36” 16 April 2020. 66 United Nations, “COVID-19 Multi-Sector Humanitarian Country Plan. Afghanistan”, 24 March 2020. 67 Food Security Information Network, “Global Report on Food Crises. Joint Analysis for Better Decisions” 2020. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 24 Acute food insecurity situation, by province, Afghanistan, November 2019–March 2020 Source: Food Security Information Network, Global Report on Food Crises: Joint Analysis for Better Decisions (2020). The disruption of markets and mobility restrictions related to the COVID-19 crisis already seem to be negatively impacting labour markets and purchasing power in Afghanistan. A quarter of the labour force is unemployed and 80 per cent of employment is unstable, comprising self-employment, daily labour and in-kind work.68 During March–April 2020, the purchasing power of casual labourers and pastoralists deteriorated by 20 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, reportedly as a result of their inability to work due to lockdown measures.69 Global remittances are projected to decline sharply, by around 20 per cent, due to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns,70 with a considerable impact on rural livelihoods and food and nutrition security, 71 especially in countries such as Afghanistan that are heavily dependent on remittances. Depending on the degree to which the economy is interrupted, loss of livelihood may overwhelm currently precarious coping mechanisms. The erosion of already fragile livelihoods may generate discontent among the population, fuelling social unrest.72 All these developments are likely to further reduce licit economic opportunities and increase the propensity of the rural population to engage in opium cultivation, trafficking and heroin manufacture. 68 United Nations, COVID-19 Multi-Sector Humanitarian Country Plan - Afghanistan (24 March 2020). 69 OCHA, “Afghanistan. Brief: COVID-19. Number 36” 16 April 2020. 70 World Bank, “World Bank Predicts Sharpest Decline in Remittances in Recent History” (April 22, 2020). 71 FAO, “Migrant Workers and the COVID-19 Pandemic” (2020). 72 FAO, “Addressing the impacts of COVID-19 in food crises” (2020). COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 25 POTENTIAL IMPACT ON DRUG TRAFFICKING ACROSS BORDERS Organized criminal groups react adaptively to market changes. Past experience has demonstrated the capacity of such groups to rapidly adapt their modus operandi or switch market in response to shocks or new opportunities. For example, following a poppy blight in Afghanistan in 2010 and concurrent political developments, cannabis was increasingly produced in the country and international drug trafficking groups increased trafficking in cannabis products from Afghanistan to Europe. 73, 74 In the past, in some parts of Peru, coca cultivation was scaled back concurrently with an increase in illicit mining in response to increases in the price of gold. 75 The rapid adaptation of organized criminal groups to new environments has already been reported in some Balkan countries where certain organized criminal groups involved in drug trafficking are moving into forms of crime linked to the COVID-19 virus, such as cybercrime and trafficking in falsified medicines. 76 It is expected that groups will also adapt their drug trafficking strategies to overcome the measures implemented to counter the spread of COVID-19. The following strategies may vary depending