shifting trafficking modes, for example, from commercial cargo by land to informal maritime transportation using fishing vessels. There are early indications that heroin trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe may indeed be shifting southwards and from land to maritime transportation. The southern route (Afghanistan–Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan–Indian Ocean–Arabian Peninsula–Africa–Europe) may thus gain in importance at the expense of to the “northern” and “Balkan” routes. Cocaine trafficking may be affected differently by lockdown measures since the drug is mostly trafficked by sea and traffickers often rely on non-commercial vessels such as private boats. This trafficking method is not directly affected by a reduction in commercial cargo and may increase if the 10 UNODC field office assessment. 11 World Trade COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 13 availability of other options decreases. Indeed, reports from Colombia suggest that increases in border controls have led to a reduction in cocaine trafficking via land routes and an increase in the pre-existing trafficking of cocaine by sea, in particular using submersibles for shipments to Central America and container cargo for shipments to Europe. Similarly, light aircraft traffic to transit countries has apparently increased.15 Reduced licit trade may not have a direct impact on synthetic drugs that are produced and trafficked within regions using informal border crossings or non-commercial sea routes. Potential disruptions, however, may occur due to a lack of precursor substances in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, where precursor chemicals are imported from East Asia. 3. Varying levels of law enforcement activity and the risk of interception of drugs Government-decreed lockdowns can have an impact on the interception of trafficked drugs and on the real and perceived risk of drug trafficking. The impact can go in two different directions. The interception of drugs and risk of arrest of traffickers may be reduced where law enforcement efforts are diverted towards the enforcement of COVID-19 measures. Mobility restrictions and shelter-inplace orders themselves can lead to a reduction in staff available for intelligence work (working-fromhome and a reduction in personnel to avoid infection) and may make domestic and international law enforcement operations more challenging. Priorities may shift and the capacity of law enforcement to monitor and intercept drug shipments and to disrupt organized crime networks may be reduced. In such a scenario, COVID-19 measures may create a conducive environment for illegal activities and drug trafficking groups may try to seize the opportunity to increase their activities and to expand their influence in the drug markets, as has been suggested, for example, in the case of the Taliban in Afghanistan16 and organized crime groups in Mexico. 17 Conversely, an increase in controls to enforce lockdown measures, such as street patrols and increased border controls, may increase the efficiency of law enforcement efforts and increase the probability of drug shipments being intercepted and of drug production being limited. Reports from Colombia, for example, indicate that an increase in law enforcement activities and a reduction in the availability of chemicals necessary for cocaine production are limiting production capacities in the country.18 The rapid assessment undertaken for this brief suggests that both situations are emerging, with some countries in lockdown situations still making drug interceptions on a large, and possibly increasing, scale, while others are making hardly any drug seizures. 15 UNODC field office assessment. 16 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. Available at https://acleddata.com/2020/04/16/cdt-spotlight-taliban-inafghanistan/. 17 Media report made available to UNODC. Available at https://www.am.com.mx/opinion/-El-crimen-organizado-durante-lapandemia-20200414-0007.html. 18 UNODC field office assessment. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 14 4. Economic downturn may lead to a long-term increase in illicit drug trafficking and consumption The COVID-19 crisis is like no other. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract by 3 per cent in 2020, far more than during the financial crisis of 2008–09. 19 The COVID-19 crisis is hitting economies across the world almost simultaneously through both the trade and financial channels.20 There is still uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the COVID-19 crisis. Governments are facing the unprecedent double challenge of containing the health pandemic, while simultaneously responding to its economic and social impact. Flattening the pandemic curve through containment policies is the primary objective for most of them and flattening the recession curve through socioeconomic policies is the second.21 The economic contraction will probably have the greatest effect on developing economies, with the poorest members of society in those countries being those most affected. In relation to drug markets and based on the experience of the financial crisis of 2008/2009, it is fair to assume that the economic downturn may lead both to a lasting transformation of the illicit drug markets and the potential