geographically centralized than the production of heroin and cocaine, although large-scale production is concentrated in just a few countries in all regions. In general, traffickers are able to produce large quantities of synthetic drugs at relatively low cost and ship large amounts within and across regions. Without geographic constraints such as the need for access to suitable land and a climate conducive to drug cultivation, clandestine manufacturing facilities can generally be set up anywhere and operated with relatively little in the way of logistics and workforce requirements. Where the measures implemented to restrict the spread of COVID-19 could have the greatest impact is on the availability of internationally controlled precursor substances.44 If domestic manufacturing facilities and the domestic supply of precursors are available, the supply of synthetic drugs may only 39 CORAH project, Ministry of Interior, Peru. 40 UNODC field office assessment. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 20 be affected in areas under very strict mobility restrictions. If, however, production depends on imported precursor substances, the production of synthetic drugs may be reduced. Depending on the length of the disruption, there is potential for the further fragmentation of the market. Countries in South-East Asia, for example, are currently supplied by large-scale production in a few countries. If lockdown measures continue, production sites may be relocated or newly established in order to further decentralize supply from the regional to the national or subnational levels. At the national level, the Russian Federation is an example of a country where there may not have been major disruptions in the production of synthetic drugs. Mephedrone and other popular synthetic drugs are produced domestically and their precursors are now also sourced in the country itself rather than being imported, as in the past. 45 The synthetic drug market (mostly methamphetamine) in Mexico has already been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Some media sources suggest that methamphetamine prices more than doubled between January 2020 and March 2020, 46 while others even speak of a sixfold increase in the price of methamphetamine in that country in recent months, 47, 48 as imports of chemicals from East Asia have come to a halt.49 Synthetic drug production in the European Union (amphetamine, MDMA and methamphetamine) relies on chemicals imported from East Asia50 and partly on chemicals trafficked within Europe. 51 In Czechia, the closure of borders has led to a reduction in the availability of precursors for methamphetamine production and a lack of methamphetamine in the market is expected. The manufacture of “captagon” in Lebanon and Syria may be disrupted as a result of the decline in trade with South-East Asia, from where the precursor chemicals needed in its production are imported. 52 Consequently, law enforcement agencies in countries in the Arabian Peninsula (United Arab Emirates, Oman) are expecting a decrease in the trafficking of “their-business. 50 International Narcotics Control Board (INCB), Precursors 2019, United Nations, Vienna 2020. 51 European Monitoring Centre for Drugs (EMCDDA) and Drug Addiction and Europol, EU Drug Markets Report 2019, (Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019). 52 UNODC field office assessment. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 21 Cannabis Cannabis products are often locally produced and distributed through very short, domestic supply chains. There are no indications that these short supply chains have been disrupted by the COVID-19 measures. Indeed, there are indications that the lockdown measures in Europe may be leading to an increase in demand for cannabis products, 53 which may in turn lead to an intensification of drug trafficking activities from North Africa to Europe. Economic downturn will make vulnerable households more economically dependent on opium and coca leaf production Socioeconomic surveys conducted annually by UNODC with community leaders and households in countries affected by illicit crop cultivation consistently show that the absence of infrastructure and services are important determinants of illicit crop cultivation and that income inequality, food insecurity, weak governance and insecurity are both causes and consequences of illicit crop cultivation. Over the years, households that cultivate illicit crops have shown higher levels of multi-dimensional poverty than those that do not. The severe contraction of economic growth and the instability emerging from the COVID-19 crisis are expected to have a significant impact on the number of households cultivating illicit crops worldwide, as affected farmers may be more inclined to participate in the illegal economy if it provides them with an opportunity to recover (which other crops cannot easily offer) and secure access to a market once borders are reopened. In Latin America, long-term increases in illicit crop cultivation are expected due to an increase in household vulnerability Latin America is expected to suffer the worst economic crisis in its history, with an contraction of 5.3 per cent, comparable only to the Great Depression of 1930 (5.0 per cent reduction).54 The economy