of Mexico, the third largest producer of opium poppy worldwide, is expected to contract even further than the regional and global average (by 6.5 per cent), as the economy of the United States, its main commercial partner, is also expected to shrink. In Colombia, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia, the Andean countries that produce almost all coca worldwide, the economy is expected to shrink by 2.6, 4.0 and 3.0 per cent, respectively.55, 56 In Latin America overall, based on conservative estimates, the percentage of people living below the poverty line is expected to increase by 4 percentage points (from 30 to 34 per cent), and extreme poverty by 2 percentage points (from 11 to 13 per cent), mostly because of the inadequate social protection systems in the region.57 53 See section on consumption. 54 ECLAC. 2020, “Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 with a View to Reactivation”, Special Report 2. 55 Inter-American Development Bank, “El Impacto del COVID-19 en las Economías de la Región. América Central” (2020). 56 ECLAC. 2020, “Measuring the Impact of COVID-19 with a View to Reactivation”, Special Report 2. 57 ECLAC. 2020, “Latin America and the Caribbean and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economic and Social Effects”, Special Report No 1. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 22 Development gap between coca-growing households and non-coca-growing households in Colombia Source: UNODC calculations using data from 6,000 households in 12 departments collected for the baseline of the alternative development project “Land Titling to Substitute Illicit Crops” (“Formalizar para Sustituir”) in 2017. The baseline data reflect the situation before the beginning of the project. Note: The development gap refers to the difference in Sustainable Development Goal indicators between households cultivating illicit crops (red line) and households not cultivating illicit crops (blue line). The closer the line to the outside boundaries of the graphs, the better the situation of the households in relation to the Sustainable Development Goal indicators. The COVID-19 crisis will affect both the quantity of jobs (increased unemployment and underemployment) and the quality of work (reduced wages and access to social protection) available, in particular among the most vulnerable groups, such as informal sector workers. 58 In Mexico, the percentage of formal jobs expected to be lost is between 5 and 14 per cent; in Colombia, Peru and the Plurinational State of Bolivia, the figure is expected to be between 3 and 14 per cent. In Latin America, most of the labour in the agriculture and fishing sector is informal (84 per cent). Although no precise estimates are available, the number of informal jobs lost will be even higher than the number of formal jobs lost.59 This severe economic contraction and subsequent job losses are expected to lead to an increasing number of vulnerable households resorting to negative coping mechanisms, such as illicit crop cultivation, if other income-generating options are not in place. The sudden disruption observed in Peru, where coca leaf prices fell by 46 per cent from January to April 2020, is likely to be short-lived as consumer prices of cocaine are increasing and drug traffickers are adaptable. For example, at the United States–Mexico border, drug trafficking organizations are moving more productsthrough crossborder tunnels and increasing sightings of drones and ultralights suggest that traffickers may be increasing air deliveries.60 Conversely, in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, the political turbulence at 58 Ibid. 59 Inter-American Development Bank, “Cómo Impactará la COVID-19 al Empleo? Posibles Escenarios para América Latina y el Caribe” 2020. 60 Noticias Financieras (English), “From Peruvian cocaleros to retailers in Paris, coronavirus tops the drug trade” 24 April 2020. SDG1: income > $1.9 per person/day SDG3: access to health services SDG4: secondary school SDG5: female hh representative SDG6: access infrastr. drinking water SDG7: public electric energy SDG9: good quality roads SDG12: no cooking with wood SDG13: no affected by climate cond. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coca No coca COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 23 the end of 2019 and the COVID-19 crisis at the beginning of 2020 could be facilitating farmers to relax the social enforcement of one cato of coca cultivation per family, possibly leading to an increase in cultivation.61 In the case of Mexico, the decrease in opium poppy cultivation in recent years has not only been associated with a sharp drop in opium poppy prices caused by the increasing use of fentanyl in the United States, but also with an intensification of extortion and kidnapping perpetrated by organized crime groups to compensate for decreasing revenues. 62 During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, cartels are reported to be giving away supplies across their territories of influence and using “social activism” to earn the goodwill of the local population. . Increasing unemployment, decreasing income and higher prices of illicit crops cultivated (e.g., cocaine and heroin) are expected to make membership of a drug cartel increasingly attractive.63, 64 In Afghanistan, increases in food prices and overwhelmed coping mechanisms are expected to trigger illicit crop cultivation The COVID-19 pandemic is not only