temporary or if drug markets will undergo a lasting transformation. Close monitoring is also required to close gaps in the understanding of the dynamics of drug markets, in particular in Africa, where information on drug trafficking and drug consumption remains scarce. Further information is also needed to improve understanding of how the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on drug production and drug trafficking may be affecting terrorist organizations, which benefit financially from facilitating trafficking in drugs and other illicit materials. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 9 BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic is taking its toll on the global economy, public health and people’s way of life. The virus has now infected more than 3.5 million people, killed 250,000 and led Governments to take drastic measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019. 1 Roughly half of the global population is living under mobility restrictions and numerous border crossings2 have been closed. Economic activity has declined drastically as many countries have opted for closure of non-essential businesses. Unemployment has skyrocketed in many countries, 3 further reducing the demand for goods and services. As a result, the World Trade Organization expects world trade to fall by between 13 and 32 per cent in 2020, with potential recovery only in 2021 or 2022. 4 1 Available at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. 2 As at March 30, 2020, the International Organization for Migration reported that 133 countries had imposed mobility restrictions, with 584 land crossings closed and 320 more partially closed (out of a total of 1,075 monitored), and some 76 sea border crossings closed and 80 partially closed. Available at https://migration.iom.int/. 3 International Labour Organization. Available at https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/coronavirus/impacts-andresponses/WCMS_739047/lang--en/index.htm. 4 World Trade Organization. Available at https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm. Limitations of this research brief The aim of this research brief is to present a rapid assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the drug supply chain, from drug production and trafficking to consumption. It builds upon the limited information that UNODC has been able to collect within the past few weeks through: • reports provided by 35 Member States that responded to the UNODC call to report real-time information on the impact of COVID-19 on crime and drugs; • qualitative assessments made by UNODC field offices; • data reported to the UNODC Drugs Monitoring Platform; and • anecdotal information collected through the media. While UNODC has presented and analysed the information available with rigour in order to avoid bias, timeliness has been prioritized over comprehensiveness and the information-base for the analysis remains limited and, in some cases, anecdotal. With new data arriving on a daily basis and in a situation that is evolving very rapidly, the brief will remain a living document to be updated regularly as and when new information becomes available to UNODC. The analysis presented here should therefore be viewed as a preliminary assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on the drug markets, which is aimed at alerting the international community about how the drug problem could be affected in the short-term and from a long-term perspective. UNODC continues to monitor drug markets by collecting real-time information. Drug seizure cases are collected and analysed frequently in the UNODC Drugs Monitoring Platform, which draws results from text mining/text analytics (also known as “web scraping”) to update drug seizure cases. Combining the information with price and purity data, as well as qualitative information from field offices and Governments is key to maintaining an overview of possible rapid changes. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 10 Drug trafficking relies heavily on legal trade to camouflage its activities and on individuals being able to distribute drugs to consumers. The measures implemented by Governments to counter the COVID19 pandemic have thus inevitably affected all aspects of the illegal drug markets, from the production and trafficking of drugs to their consumption. This disruption may be temporary, or it may lead to lasting drastic changes in drug supply chains, or at least in some parts of them. There are different possible mechanisms by which the COVID-19 pandemic may be affecting drug markets. Market reactions to shocks that happened in the past, such as the heroin shortages in 2001 in Australia and Estonia, in 2010/11 in the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation and other European countries, or the ban on opium cultivation imposed by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001, can give indications of how the drug markets may be reacting. Based on the most recent data supplied by government authorities, open sources, including the media, and the network of UNODC field offices, this research brief describes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on drug markets to the extent that is currently possible. COVID-19 and the drug supply chain: from production and trafficking to use 11 HOW COULD COVID-19 AFFECT DRUG MARKETS? Mobility restrictions, closed