Statistical investigation:

S4-1: Plan and conduct investigations using the statistical enquiry cycle:

• determining appropriate variables and data collection methods;
• gathering, sorting, and displaying multivariate category, measurement, and time-series data to detect patterns, variations, relationships, and trends;
• comparing distributions visually;
• communicating findings, using appropriate displays.

Statistical literacy:

S4-2: Evaluate statements made by others about the findings of statistical investigations and probability activities.

Probability:

S4-3: Investigate situations that involve elements of chance by comparing experimental distributions with expectations from models of the possible outcomes, acknowledging variation and independence.

S4-4: Use simple fractions and percentages to describe probabilities.

• Marking Grid with level 3 to level 6 of the NZC.
• NZMaths NZC link.
• Liz Sneddon
• The Dog Ate my Homework
• Summary Questions
• Summary Investigation Questions
• Level 4 NZC
• Year 9 & 10 Resources

• Compare OECD Countries
• If NZ had 100 people
• GapMinder
• Stickland
• CODAP
• NZ Census at School
• Year 9 & 10 Statistics This website has videos and workbooks for a complete statistical education. Free.

Stats NZ

Influenza is a potentially life-threatening virus that spreads quickly from person to person. It is a significant public health issue in this country, with 10–20 percent of New Zealanders infected every year.

Imagine 10% of New Zealanders got Corona-virus, approximately 500,000 people. Imagine 2% of this 500,000 died, which is approximately 10,000 people. If 20% got infected, and the death rate was 4% then 40,000 could die. It is important to understand this is just an educated guess. No one knows what the future will bring.

How does this compare with our annual death rate? In 2018: 33,225 deaths were registered in New Zealand (Nz Stats). So 10,000 to 40,000 deaths is a lot of people, the impact would be felt deeply at a person level and perhaps change society as a whole. The overall impact may depend on how people react. The impact on the economy due to fear, the lack of travel insurance, the uncertainty and the impact on overloaded health services is significant.

Understanding the potential cost of doing nothing is important. If the government closes schools, we can support this decision when we understand it.

For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

SOURCE: https://www.who.int PDF Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

There was a wonderful paper published that analyzed data regarding the Spanish flu in 1918, examining proactive versus reactive school closures. When did [regional] authorities close the schools relative to when the epidemic was spiking? What they found was that proactive school closing saved substantial numbers of lives. St. Louis closed the schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after the peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh. These things work.

From: Science Mag

Maths with Stats ran the numbers and predict America will run out of hospital beds in May 2020.

What does the coronavirus mean for the U.S. health care system? Some simple math offers alarming answers. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22.

• The Spinoff is the source of the above images which provide clarity of understanding. The article also explains the three phases of a Pandemic.
• Phase one of the Covid-19 epidemic curve – containment
• Phase two – community transmission
• Phase three - under control or no one left to infect

More excellent links:

• https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/10/social-distancing-coronavirus/
• https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
• https://www.worldometers.info/
• https://www.news10.com/news/coronavirus/comparing-coronavirus-to-the-flu-and-other-respiratory-illnesses/

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/21-03-2020/pm-ardern-announces-four-tier-covid-19-alert-system-as-nz-faces-community-spread/

• People over 70 years of age, or people who are immunocompromised or have certain pre-existing conditions, need to stay at home as much as they can from now on.
• All non-essential domestic travel be limited.
• We need people to significantly reduce the number of interactions they have at this time and that includes visiting people in different parts of the country for non-essential reasons.

• Elbe & Keana are interested in the mathematics and statistics behind the investigation into COVID19 so check out that page for more links and information.
• NZ Covid19 Cases
• Details of NZ Cases
• https://covid19.govt.nz/

Staying at home – what it means

We need your support to protect New Zealand and eradicate COVID-19. Enforcement measures may be used to ensure everyone acts together, now.

• Everyone must now stay home, except those providing essential services.
• Only make physical contact with those that you live with.

Don’t worry, during this time, you will be able to access all the essentials you need, including medicine, food and other home supplies.

Click on the GIFs above to get to the Thespinoff articles.

Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand

• 25 March 2020
• Suppression-and-mitigation-strategies-for-control-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand
• A major advantage of suppression strategies as opposed to mitigation is that early suppression buys time. This has two key benefits: (1) it may be possible to delay the epidemic for long enough that a vaccine and/or effective treatment become widely available in NZ; and (2) it allows NZ to learn from rapidly unfolding events in other countries. This could include learning which mitigation strategies are most successful, and how to ensure timing of control interventions is robust to uncertainty. PDF

Executive Summary

• Suppression strategies aim to keep the number of cases to an absolute minimum for as long as possible. This requires early and effective control interventions.
• Suppression can only delay an epidemic, not prevent it, but may buy enough time for a vaccine or treatment to become available.
• Mitigation strategies aim to control an epidemic so that herd immunity is acquired by the population without overwhelming healthcare systems.
• Mitigation strategies are likely to be very high risk: they are unproven internationally, potentially sensitive to uncertainty, and it may take years for herd immunity to be acquired.
• Strategy can be switched from suppression to mitigation. For example, once successful mitigation strategies have been tested in other countries. It is likely to be difficult or impossible to switch from a mitigation to a suppression strategy.
• A combination of successful suppression, strong border measures, and widespread contact tracing and testing resulting in containment could allow periods when control measures can be relaxed, but only if we can reduce cases to a handful.