Introduction:
Thaksin Shinawatra’s rise in the early 2000s started the populist era in Thailand, his programs expanded welfare, empowered rural voters, and changed the country's election demographic. His policies helped long-neglected communities which built one of the strongest rural support bases. Yet despite this popularity, Thaksin’s populism didn't survive. Thaksin's populism collapse rooted from deep conflicts the elite institutions, growing accusations of authoritarianism, and the larger social divide between urban and rural Thailand. All the tension above set the stage for the 2006 coup and years of political instability, and slander around the shinawatra family.
Introduction:
1. Elite Backlash
Due to his policies which led to the rise of rural support has led to changes in Thailand's political powers and deepen the class division. Ideology differences were rooted and combined with the fact that more elites and middle class people are royalists who dislike Thaksin since they see him as disrupting institutuins and monarchy power, people were divided which led to yellow shirt red shirt protests between populists and royalists.
2. Economic Factors
While Thaksin's programs sparked an economic boom, and the village fund policy where he gave 1 million bath to every village, causing a rush of money and 5.7 percent rise in GDP.
Many critics say it is merely a pork barrel spending, where they give out money to win political support and budget. Scandals surrounding the Shin corporation where the family held 50 percent estate also caused distrust amongst citizens.
3. Social Factors
Thaksin caused a divide due to his fanbase being mainly rural and working classes where his policies directly support them, and the democrat party mainly being middle-class conservatives who see him as challenging the monarchy, leading to ideology clashes and protests. Public funds were misused, corruption problems and scandals start to rise, which also fueled the hatred towards Thaksin.
Courts dissolved Thai Rak Thai party and declared the 2006 election as non-legit, banning his executives and removing pro Thaksin's ministers and a coup was staged during that year, marking an end to his populism era.
Conclusion
Thaksin's populist ideologies caused a bigger divide between classes in Thailand, due to many ideology clashes between his supporters, who were mostly rural people with lower income, which are usually ignored by the system and conservative middle class who oppose his views.
With Shin corporation benefiting and his policies where money was handed out, people see it as pork barrel spending and caused distrust, especially in the middle class demographic. People also see his actions as weakening the monarchy's power and challenging various institutions, leading to distrust and negative rumors
With these factors combined, protests broke out between the coservative force and Thaksin's supporters. Red shirt and Yellow shirt's ideologies clashed, leading to airport shutdowns and massacres, and populism ended when the court dismissed the 2006 election, a coup was staged, pro Thaksin ministers were banished and Thai Rak Thai party was dismissed by the supreme court.
Sources
Reuters. “FACTBOX – Five Facts on Thailand’s Ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra.” Reuters, October 21, 2008. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/factbox-five-facts-on-thailand-s-ex-pm-thaksin-shinawatra-idUSTRE49K51D/.
Pasuk & Baker – Key source on Thaksin’s patronage and pork-barrel populism
Suwanprasert, Wisarut. “Consequences of Thailand’s 2006 Military Coup: Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method.” European Journal of Political Economy 80 (December 2023): 102475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102475
Pongsudhirak, Thitinan. “Thailand’s Urban-Rural Split.” The Guardian, November 8, 2009. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/nov/08/thailand-rural-urban-split