Introduction:
It's no secret, u/f+4 is as close to terrible as you can possibly get while still remaining somewhat useful. In DR Dragunov had u/f+4, SSR d+4,4, d+4,1,3 which put his u/f+4 on par with Bryan's for wall carry and damage, but in T6 d+4,4 was changed from a carry to a knock back. This destroyed Dragunov's u/f+4 carry ability and unfortunately he wasn't compensated with a similar option. As such Dragunov was forced to settle with u/f+4, d+4,1,3, a shell of its past greatness.
Discovery:
Credited to tyler2k
Development:
I've never been content with u/f+4, d+4,1,3, losing Dragunov's BnB u/f+4 combo wasn't warranted, especially when you consider that his u/f+4 doesn't magically cause jabs to miss (e.g. Lars). I began experimenting with all the moves I thought would work post u/f+4, specifically trying to found out what works, what are the best options post hit, and weighing risk vs reward. Over the course of testing I discovered, which I'm sure is common knowledge to people with in-depth understanding of the Tekken system, that there's three major states during a combo.
1) The opponent can not escape follow up hits and the combo damage begins to scale downward (120%, 60%, etc). The opponent, even though may be on the ground, is not considered grounded but rather in a bobble.
2) The opponent can not escape a follow up hit, but due to the opponent being grounded, the follow up hit scales at 100%. This state only seems to exist for a few frames at most.
3) The opponent can escape follow up hits and the opponent (usually) can tech which causes the opponent to have invul frames during recovery preventing follow ups from being guaranteed.
Of the options I tested I found three follow ups where this was most visible.
u/f+4, qcf+3
u/f+4, d+3+4
u/f+4, f,f+4
In all options a well timed input would grant state 2.
Unhappy with my work in the prior months, I went back to the lab but this time I tested everything. Nearly all of Dragunov's 100+ moves, excluding obvious options such as grabs. I stumbled upon d+3,4, a move I initially disregarded, though I'm not 100% sure why. d+3,4 post u/f+4 brought something entirely new to the table, a faux forced KND out of a single strike attack. I don't say it's a true forced KND oki as the opponent recovers slightly quicker making quick stand a valid strategy against d+3,4. On the other hand all other options can be dealt with accordingly for a good chunk of damage.
While looking for oki off of Dragunov's u/f+4 options I stumbled upon u/f+4, :d/b+3 (not sure of the notation, but it's ugly). Delaying the d/b+3 just enough would cause the d/b+3 to hit the opponent in a fully grounded state such that the damage is scaled to 100%, rather than 60%. When compared to u/f+4, d/b+3 where the opponent is flipped, a JF/near-JF d/b+3 leaves the opponent on their back. When the opponent is flipped, in any of the u/f+4 combos, the opponent recovers FDFT and quicker than you do. Therefore, inherently, all oki options in this situation are extremely dangerous. One whiffed attack means FCD D+3 launch to full combo. As such oki options that leave the opponent in this state are drasticaly devalued.
Testing:
To be finished as I develop it more.
Video Examples:
From my "Practical pt.4" video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JvwTqzZSyo#t=5s
Conclusion:
Once I've fully tested all the options I'll post a conclusion, but for now the d/b+3 option seems very promising.