Post date: Feb 05, 2013 3:35:58 AM
The problem is that in RTS/TBS you can see the game develop and seeing from an outside sort of "all-seeing eye" perspective is that there really are no surprises to the commentators. They can see what tech the players are going and then speculate whether this strategy will succeed/fail. This is immediately apparent in the beginning of an SC2 match; 11 pools/2 gates/early expand all bring similar openings to SC2. This is very similar Chess where simple opening pawn moves dictate the type of early game to be expected (i.e. sicilian/french defense). From there they can see the openers evolve into late game where RPS style matches come into play. At high level play, I wouldn't be surprised if a well read commentator can predict the outcome of the match with 90% certainty due to the RPS style of SC2 and general vision of economy and free resources left.
This is very different from FGs where the only universal resource is HP. SF is a little easier to predict with super and ultra meter, but this doesn't necessarily mean translate over that all FGs with meter are predictable since MvC3's TAC system allows for meter swings and immediate meter gain. In this case the remaining teammates can be seen as a resource, although historically it's easy to see that having 3v1 situations doesn't mean shit. Instead you can only weigh the "come back"-ability of characters who might have a chance of a 3v1 swing (i.e. Magnus, Wesker) versus those who realistically don't (i.e. Hsien-Ko, Haggar). I remember someone actually did a small, scientific study regarding this in vanilla MvC3 regarding Wesker that's worth checking out.
Then you have games like Tekken/VF/DoA with no real meter system to speak of and instead is mostly yomi. Sure a player might get more desperate as their health dwindles down, but for TTT2 a secondary health bar makes this less prevalent. So all the commentators can then comment on (with near 100% confidence) is wall positioning, overall momentum, and useless fluff such as match and tournament history. Meterless games tend to ebb and flow until a clear winner can be seen, but this typically doesn't occur until a round is almost over. Instead we're stuck commentating what we're seeing (which is what everyone, including the players, is seeing except with more educated eyes) and what they could have done differently.
TL;DR - Casting RTS/FPS is fucking easy when compared to FGs.