Bad evidence leads to bad policy, but how can statisticians best influence decision makers? Three speakers will share their views.

Date: 20th March 2019

Confirmed speakers: David Torgerson, Paul Marchant, John Bates

Location: Quarry House (room TBC)

Time: 3:30-5:30pm (refreshments from 3pm)

Attendance is free but registration is required to attend this event. Please register here.

The challenges of undertaking and implementing policy trials, David Torgerson

Randomised clinical trials are the bedrock of evidence based medicine. However, despite the first modern RCTs among people being in non-health settings (i.e., education and criminal justice) there has historically been significant resistance to their use to inform policy outside health. Over the last 15 years, however, there has been a significant shift towards using experimental methods to evaluate social policies. However, this is not without difficulties. There is considerable pressure from policy makers that can result in suboptimal study designs, poor implementation decisions and down playing the inevitable studies that show no effect. In this talk I will discuss some of the challenges of policy trials.

Bad evidence leads to bad policy, Paul Marchant

Policy that is based on evidence is surely the rational choice. However, the evidence presented does need to be sound. Otherwise, if the evidence put forward is flawed then it is likely that more harm than good will done, through encouraging flawed policies. It is also likely that it will be difficult to get the policy changed, because of the illusion of an evidential basis. Also, personal investment by those having encouraged and promoted the policy may hinder its change.

In this presentation some studies used to encourage expenditure will be dissected and shown to be flawed. High standards of research are essential to ensure trustworthy evidence and policy makers should be attuned to the need for separating wheat from chaff.

Evidence is not the only truth, John Bates

We live in a data driven age, and Government Departments pride themselves on their evidence based approach to policy making. But, we also live in a 24 hour media age, and an age of reactionary cynicism in the words of politicians. For professional statisticians, with a responsibility to be honest, impartial and transparent, it can be challenging to balance analytical rigour with the day-to-day challenges of delivering fast-paced advice and policy.

This presentation will explore some personal reflections on how evidence is used in a Government Department, why our approach has some real strengths, but how we sometimes run the risk of coming unstuck.