Gideon Polya, MWC News, 4 July 2005.
Using UN Population Division data [1] it has been possible to calculate the avoidable mortality (technically, excess mortality) for every country in the World since 1950. Avoidable mortality (excess mortality) is the difference between the ACTUAL mortality in a country and the mortality EXPECTED for a decently-run country with the same demographics [2]. The post-1950 avoidable mortality has totalled 1.3 billion for the World, 1.2 billion for the non-European World and 0.6 billion for the Muslim World (a Muslim Holocaust indeed).
These horrendous figures are corroborated by independent calculations of under-5 infant mortality for every country in the World since 1950 - thus the total comes to 0.9 billion of which all but 25 million deaths have occurred in the non-European World and about 90% have been avoidable.
The First World (notably the US, UK, France, Portugal and Russia) have had major complicity in the huge avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality in the Third World in the post-war era, mainly through impositions such as colonialism, neo-colonialism, malignant interference, militarization, debt, corrupt indigenous client regimes, war, civil war, economic exclusion and economic constraint [2]. Analysis of avoidable mortality (excess mortality) can determine the actual human cost of specific militarist enterprises such as illegal Zionist expansion in the Holy Land and the illegal US invasions and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan.
What has been the human cost of Israel and US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan?
The 1950-2005 avoidable mortality (and expressed as a percentage of the current population in parentheses) has been 0.1 million [1.4% of the 2005 population] (Israel), 0.7 million [17.7%] (Occupied Palestinian Territories), 19.8 million [26.5%] (Egypt), 0.6 million [11.0%] (Jordan), 0.5 million [14.2%] (Lebanon), and 2.2 million [11.8%] (Syria). Further, the 1950-2005 avoidable mortality in countries attacked but not occupied by Israel has been 5.3 million [19.9%] (Iraq), 0.8 million [13.6%] (Libya), 1.6 million [15.8%] (Tunisia), and 11.1 million [40.3%] (Uganda).
The 1950-2005 under-5 infant mortality (and expressed as a percentage of the current population in parentheses) has been 0.09 million [1.4%] (Israel), 0.3 million [7.7%] (Occupied Palestinian Territories), 14.1 million [18.9%] (Egypt), 0.3 million [5.8%] (Jordan), 0.2 million [6.3%] (Lebanon), and 1.7 million [9.2%] (Syria). Further, the 1950-2005 avoidable mortality in countries attacked but not occupied by Israel has been 3.4 million [13.0%] (Iraq), 0.6 million [10.9%](Libya), 1.6 million [15.8%] (Tunisia) and 6.3 million [22.8%] (Uganda).{mosgoogle right}
The 1950-2005 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality in Israel's neighbours total 23.9 million and 16.7 million, respectively. The 1950-2005 avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality in all countries Israel has attacked militarily total 42.6 million and 28.7 million, respectively (these estimates excluding the USA by setting aside the 1967 Israeli attack on the defenceless USS Liberty that killed 34 Americans and wounded a further 172)
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Threat, militarization, war and consequent economic distortion have clearly contributed to the horrendous avoidable mortality in countries with which Israel has been in conflict. While Israel is clearly complicit in the huge avoidable mortality in its neighbours, the actual extent of Israel's responsibility is difficult to assess. However the Ruler is responsible for the Ruled and accordingly Israel has an unequivocal responsibility for the avoidable mortality in the Occupied Palestinian Territories since the Israeli invasion in 1967. Using UN Population Division data [1] it has been estimated that the post-1967 avoidable mortality (excess mortality) and under-5 infant mortality in the Occupied Palestinian Territories have been 320,000 and 170,000, respectively.
Of course these appalling statistics simply provide one slice of a more complex reality. Thus millions of Palestinians have been living as refugees within the Occupied Palestinian Territories or abroad and millions of Palestinians have been living under abusive miltary occupation for 4 decades, many of them refugees in their own country. US support for Israel has now expanded into the dishonestly named "War on Terror" that is more realistically a "War on Muslims", a "War for Oil" or a "War for US Global Hegemony".
Thus the avoidable mortality and under-5 infant mortality have been 1.3 million and 0.9 million, respectively (for the Gulf War & Sanctions War against Iraq, 1991-2003), 6.5 million and 4.9 million (US-backed civil war and war against Soviet occupation in Afghanistan, 1979-2001), 1.5 million and 1.2 million (US invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, 2001-2005) and 0.4 million and 0.3 million (US invasion and occupation of Iraq, 2003-2005). About 90% of under-5 infant deaths in war-ravaged Iraq and Afghanistan have been avoidable.
According to the latest United Nations Childrens' Fund (UNICEF) report (2005) [3], in 2003 the under-5 infant mortality was 110,000 in Iraq and 292,000 in Afghanistan as compared to 1,000 in the invading and occupying US Coalition country, Australia (noting that in 2003 these countries had populations of about 25, 24 and 20 million, respectively). Non-provision by the US Coalition of life-sustaining requisites in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories is killing about 400,000 infants annually, corresponding to over 1,000 avoidable infant deaths DAILY. This mass infanticide surely constitutes a "War on Muslim Women and Children" [4].
The Ruler is responsible for the Ruled. The horrendous infant mortality in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories is occurring because of the non-provision of life-preserving resources by the occupying US Coalition - indeed it constitutes "passive genocide" and an egregious, continuing war crime [5]. However the US is the dominant global superpower both economically and militarily - indeed in 2002 over 60 countries had US bases [6]. Accordingly, the US has a major involvement in the horrendous global avoidable mortality of about 20 million per year or about 55,000 DAILY.
The monetary cost of US aid to Israel (1949-1998) has been estimated to be $85 billion or $135 billion if interest is included [7] and about $200 billion (including interest) for the period 1949-2005 [8]. However the actual total economic cost to the US of its support for Israel has been estimated to be more than $1,600 billion since 1973 [9] and $2,600 billion since 1956 [10, 11] (although see [12]). The huge cost of Israel to the US has presumably impacted on the relatively low level of aid to the Third World from the World's dominant superpower. Thus aid to Israel is a major component of US foreign aid and the US ranks last among the wealthy countries in terms of its foreign aid as a percentage of gross national product (0.1%) [13].
One of the worst things that can happen to anyone is the death of a child. I know. However "high tech war" conducted by the US minimizes politically-unpopular military casualties at the expense of horrendous "enemy" civilian casualties - and these civilian victims are mostly children. Thus the post-invasion under-5 infant deaths in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories total about 1.5 million as compared to US military deaths of about 2,000 [14], giving a "death ratio" of about 750 Muslim infant deaths for every US military death. This is vastly greater than the World War 2 "death ratio" of 0.3 Jewish children murdered for every Axis military death [8].
An "interim peace plan" for the Holy Land
From the perspective of parents and children, US-backed violence has to stop NOW - even if the "peace" that is emplaced is only an "interim peace". The following "interim peace plan" for IMMEDIATE peace with justice in the Holy Land is offered purely by way of example in order to show that with honesty, humanity and good-will peace is possible, even in apparently intractable circumstances.
My "interim peace plan" for the Holy Land involves two formally independent states within defined borders; return to the 1967 borders; removal of all illegal settlements and the Wall but with special joint arrangements for Jerusalem; Palestinian disarmament and "total airport-level security" provided everywhere essentially by Israel alone (as in 1967); internationally-guaranteed civil and human rights for all; reconciliation and abolition of racism and incitement; and unhindered access to essentially all parts of an extremely secure, peaceful and prosperous Holy Land for all of its inhabitants - both Jews and Arabs would have peaceful access to ALL of the Holy Land.
The above "interim peace plan" simply turns the clock back to 1967. The key proposal for unilateral Israeli provision of "total airport-level security" is no doubt controversial and inequitable but is advocated because this is an "interim peace plan" to be implemented NOW; Israel is already effectively in charge of security; nuclear-armed and justifiably paranoid Israel would insist on such total security anyway in any "final" peace deal; and bilateral security arrangements (as at present) would inevitably simply permit endless tit-for-tat violence leading to further Arab dispossession, miniscule Palestinian Bantustans (concentration camps) surrounded by concrete walls and razor wire, and eventual complete ethnic cleansing of Arabs from the Holy Land by violent, racist, Zionist fanatics.
Scientific solutions to immense global problems will come about through application of the scientific method (involving the critical testing of potentially falsifiable hypotheses) and commitment to truth, reason and free speech. I am a scientist and am accordingly intrinsically optimistic. The above "interim peace plan" could deliver "interim peace" in the Holy Land immediately - and hopefully there may be even better plans for immediate peace.
Unfortunately "high tech war" is immensely profitable - thus the EXTRA profit to the US military-industrial complex since 9/11 already totals about $500 billion. There is accordingly an enormous impetus for "endless war" among racist militarists in both the US and Israel [15].
Mainstream media will simply not report the horrendous human cost of the global US Empire. Media non-reportage of the horrendous, US-complicit avoidable mortality and infant mortality in the Occupied Iraqi and Afghan Territories - and indeed throughout the Third World - amounts to egregious holocaust denial. In the face of horrendous avoidable mass mortality,
silence kills and silence is complicity - decent people are obliged to inform everyone.
References
[1] United Nations, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division, "World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision Population Database" (for the latest 2004 Revision update see: http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=1 )
[2] For detailed links to writings by Gideon Polya on avoidable global mortality consult his website (see: http://members.optusnet.com.au/~gpolya/links.html)
[3] UNICEF report, 2005 (see: http://www.unicef.org/index2.html)
[4] Gideon Polya, News Central Asia, May 2005, "Orwellian Anglo-American War on Muslim women and children" in News Central Asia: (see: http://www.newscentralasia.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1299)
[5] Gideon Polya, Countercurrents, 11 March 2005, "Passive genocide in Iraq" (see: http://www.countercurrents.org/iraq-polya110305.htm)
[6] Global Policy Forum, September 2002, "US bases around the world" (see: http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/intervention/2003/0710imperialmap.htm)
[7] Richard Curtiss, Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, 1998, "The cost of Israel to U.S. taxpayers: True lies about U.S. aid to Israel" (see: http://www.washington-report.org/us_aid_to_israel/index.htm)
[8] Gideon Polya, Media Monitors Network, 27 June 2005, "The economic and human cost of Israel and US Empire" (see: http://world.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/16112).
[9] David Francis, Christian Science Monitor, 9 December 2002, "Economist tallies swelling cost of Israel to US" (see: http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1209/p16s01-wmgn.html )
[10] Thomas Stauffer, Middle East Policy Council, Journal vol X, Spring 2003, no 1,"The cost of conflict in the Middle East, 1956-2002: What the U.S. Has Spent" (see:http://www.mepc.org/public_asp/journal_vol10/0303_stauffer.asp)
[11] Holman Jenkins, Wall Street Journal, 8 October 2003, "Getting to know our new buddy: OPEC" (see: http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=8&x_nameinnews=133&x_article=596)
[12] Tamar Sternthal, Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America, 12 December 2003, "WSJ journalist overstates U.S. aid to Israel by almost $1 trillion (see: http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=8&x_nameinnews=133&x_article=596)
[13] Council on Foreign Relations, 2004 (see: http://cfrterrorism.org/policy/foreignaid_print.html)
[14] Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, 2005 (see: http://icasualties.org/oif/)
[15] Gideon Polya, Countercurrents, 19 November 2004, "US Profits From Jihadist Terrorism" (see: http://www.countercurrents.org/us-polya191104.htm)
Dr Gideon Polya published some 130 works in a 4 decade scientific career, most recently a huge pharmacological reference text "Biochemical Targets of Plant Bioactive Compounds" (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, New York & London, 2003), and is currently writing a book on global mortality - numerous articles on this matter can be found by a simple Google search for "Gideon Polya" and on his website: http://members.optusnet.com.au/~gpolya/links.html .