In:
Information and Security, An International Journal, Homeland/Societal Vulnerability and Security, Ed: Faber, P., Ratchev, V., Volume 17, ProCon Ltd., Sofia, 2005
The paper presents a set of model prototypes to simulate the most critical areas of a highly developed region in social, economic, technical and informational terms. The models were developed caused by fears that the highly integrated information infrastructure creates risks of failures and intrusions within information nets with the consequence of the total loss of vital resources like energy or traffic. The models are seen on three levels of abstraction and are programmed and executed with tools of systems dynamics:
On the highest level of abstraction the modelled region is described and calculated using system attributes and variables like productivity, social pressure, satisfaction, etc. Different layers of social, informational and physical realities are defined.
On the medium level of abstraction critical areas of an advanced society are identified and calculated using variables which represent an entity in the reality and which in general have an empirical context. Identified critical areas for first model experiments were the sectors of energy, communication, traffic, security, government, and defence. Applying a methodology to identify value drivers and to visualize the interrelations of components in complex systems developed the model inputs and descriptive factors. This approach was used with a group of experts in each area.
On a low level of abstraction a model prototype was developed using variables which in general can be measured and quantified based on real life empirical sources. The latter approach is very complex and resource intensive and requires detailed insights and knowledge of the considered critical areas and sectors of the society under investigation.
A first application of the models was related to an exercise to demonstrate the risks of software attacks in information networks and the possible consequences for the other sensitive areas. Sensitivity analyses with the models showed that the threat of intrusion into the information networks with the consequence of the loss of vital resources is likely to be overestimated in comparison to the threat of a direct attack in the relevant vital sectors.