Tariq Sultan

Title: Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Commodity Trade between Pakistan and Her Four Major Trading Partners: An application of ARDL bounds testing approach

It is a good proposal. Two suggestions to further strengthen it:

1> The ARCH/GARCH methods for measuring volatility are sensitive to outliers and also to certain modelling assumptions. Some of our econometrics students have developed techniques for handling outliers which might be tested in this conntext. Other simpler methods of measuring volatility might also be helpful -- for instance, just the variance of the returns.

2> In addition to econometrics, small informal surveys of traders, asking questions about how they deal with exchange rate uncertainty, might reveal interesting and important information. Possibly, the responses might vary across sectors.