Emerging markets are VERY Dangerous KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING, and TAKE PROFITS, ALWAYS!
CURRENCY CONVERISON MACRO ECONOMIES GOE POLITICS GOVERMENTS
DEMOGRAPHICS NATURAL AND HUMAN RESORSE STABILITY
STRENGTH OF GOVERMENTS CORRUPTION TAKA
Kevin d. blanch will be giving weekly analytical written and video emerging market articles. In regard to the Bangladesh investor. I will keep the Bangladesh investor informed to global conditions that could affect your portfolio. Our goal at bdstock is to help investors not only make great stock picks and have a very successful portfolio that matches your needs as an investor short term or long term., but also holding on to profits and protecting wealth.
The first thing any emerging market investor must understand that emerging markets can very sensitive to global conditions in regard to macro economies, global trade, and geo political conditions. Also an investor must understand currencies conversion risk. I will be talking a lot about commodities as related to stocks gold and oil are big players in regard to managing a good emerging market portfolio.
Oct. 2010 as many of you know Bangladesh is a very exiting market to invest in right now for many reasons one they have a government committed to market integrity and long term strength. I believe that is the number one component to investment in an emerging market. Managing an emerging markets trading platforms strength. This must be the focus of all investors. Second it is all about the global economies and how Bangladesh fits in that global market, again Bangladesh is in a very good place as the global economies goes, managing their strength of their currency. Currency management in regard to your portfolio is the key to growing wealth. I will be talking a lot over the next few weeks about currencies correlated with stock prices and weighted against hard commodities like gold copper and oil.
The region as most of your know has a very young population, and enormous growth opportunities in regard to many sectors of investing. G.D. P. growth is very robust in the entire region, the region is seems to very stable as for as the geo politics are concerned. It is important as an investor to understand. That investing at home is a very different process than investing abroad. Global investing must always have as much focus on the currency conversion as the stock portfolio.
With domestic investment in Bangladesh it is always one eye on the inflation rate as any other Domestic investment, we have to stay even with inflation just to break even. The traditional high inflation trade has been gold, and boy has it work in the United States over the past decade. I like to tell investors be very aware of your own inflation situation. Is your income increasing, is your home value increasing are your living expenses increasing. All of this comes in to play when investing.
The global conditions could not be better to invest in Bangladesh right now, many countries in Europe and of course the United States has serious issues with inflation due to a very low interest rate and debt to G.D.P. for a very long time. The G.D.P. growth has not even came close to keeping up with inflation. Nor have their markets. And the populations are getting old there are 80 million out of 308 million baby boomers average age 58 years old in the United States. The same can be said for much of Europe. The demographic in Bangladesh has growth written all over it very young populations. And a young population that is becoming more technology aware every day.
All of this along with a government committed to a strong stable market. Points to a great investment future for emerging market investors who are looking to invest in Bangladesh stocks. I particularly like the banking sectors in Bangladesh this sector looks to me to be a very great growth opportunity in Bangladesh.
I want one thing to very clear when it comes to emerging markets; with growth opportunities comes great volatility and equity rollover, it is important as any investor to buy quality stocks. We at bdstock are going to be committed to analyzing and commenting on strong balance sheet companies. I will be writing on global conditions in regard to the taka and its stability against the euro the dollar the pound the yen and commodities in regard to exchange rates, and the region’s growth opportunities and risk.
Hopefully I can not only help investors navigate this investment complex, but also help investors grow wealth, and protect wealth. My analytical and commentary in regard to the Bangladesh emerging market will be available each week starting now. Feel free to email us and let me know if you have concerns as an investor in regard to the global investment world I will do my very best to address and subject matter in this context. I look forward to doing my very best in using all my life long experience as a global investor to help you as an investor, and all that comes with growing you and your family’s wealth. I Kevin d blanch of bdstock would like to wish all of you the best of luck in all of your investment ventures. Investment is a very complex field and the amount of solid information you gather will make all the difference.
Stay tuned Kevin D. Blanch
Bangladesh and its incredible Market rise
Over the past 5 years the dse Bangladesh’s key market index has risen dramatically form a level of 1400 to nearly 8000.
1825 days graph
The Bangladesh Government has stepped in to raise risky investment requirement by 100%. They have also been very diligent in supporting the taka in relation to the United States dollar stepping in support on multiple occasions.
These said interventions are a good sign that the Bangladesh government officials in regard to the market are very aware of the implications of a very fast market. They have also loosened requirements in regard to the I.P.O market. It has been very difficult for the private companies in Bangladesh to get their companies public. Thus there is a very serious shortage of equities to keep up with unbelievable demand for Bangladesh stocks. The demand for Bangladesh stocks are as I see it three deep.
· One the unbelievable positive market implications of the demographics of Bangladesh with a very young population who are becoming more market investment savvy everyday.
· Two the Bangladesh governments commitment to create a health stable business environment ( supporting the taka in relation to the Dollar)
· Three the very poor performance of U.S and other world equity mature markets. Not just in real numbers but also in weighted numbers via INFLATION.
Wealth in the U.S. And other mature markets has been crushed over the past decade weighted in oil or gold or real-estate. The wealth of the word including pensions actuaries’ are looking to globe emerging markets all the time. Bangladesh markets have benefited from these said reasons.
Any time you see growth like this as an investor you have to be very cautious, when buying individual equitys mutual funds or hinged E.T.F.s correlated to the Bangladesh market. Just because a market or an individual equity has high multiples, is no reason to sell. Each individual equity must be evaluated on its own balance sheet. As an investor it is imperative to understand where the true growth company is and where a mature company is. The valuation can and is very different.
I will be commentating and evaluating sectors of the Bangladesh market and individual equities from a fundamental analysis view point every week. There is a time when profits must be taken, and wealth protected, of course selling to soon can hurt. But as an investor leaving some on the table beats getting cut in half or more buy a long margin. I hope to shed light on individual equities and market sectors. I will be poring over all available data. And evaluating it and passing on my recommendations and commentary, written and video weekly.
The DSE has had huge run-up’s over the past few weeks. BE CARFUL OUT THEIR. If you feel like taking some profits do not be afraid of leaving some on the table. TAKING PROFITS IS GOOD. Bangladesh will have newborn equity opportunities for a very long time. Just because you miss one or two, there will be plenty of new opportunities for a very long time.
In the U.S. we have an options market so we hedge risk via the options market when we have huge profits we can simply buy derivatives (options, putts) to protect us. That option does not exist in most emerging markets and even if it does takes a very sophisticated manager to implement the use of options properly. I have worked in the derivatives markets for decades. They play a very important part in the context of wealth.
So when investing in a global market like Bangladesh it is important to understand your risk, and take the time to baby sit your portfolio. I intend to help you do just that.
Stay tuned Kevin blanch blanchblanch2@gmail.com
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