The current political-electoral context in Latin America is characterized by high uncertainty, volatility, polarization, and populist trends. In addition to the serious crises in Nicaragua and Venezuela (to which there appear to be no democratic or peaceful end in sight), we must focus on the tense situation affecting the Northern Triangle countries, in particular, the high levels of crime, corruption and impunity, marked institutional weakness, the growing penetration of drug trafficking and organized crime, and the constant pressure/extortion on the part of the US President as regards Central America and Mexico due to the migration question, and a laundry list of other issues. We must also take into account the difficulties facing new presidents Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico, and Iván Duque of Colombia; President Martín Vizcarra’s risky roposal to move up Peru’s general election by one year; and the serious crisis facing Argentina following the surprising results of the recent presidential primaries (PASO) and the increased tension at the Colombian-Venezuelan border. As we can see, there is never a dull moment in the region.

In terms of the economy, regional growth will continue to be mediocre: 0.6% according to the IMF figures as of July, acknowledging the great diversity among Latin American countries. As a result of this anemic economic growth, poverty will stay slightly above 30% (regional average), the reduction of inequality will remain stagnant, and the labor market will continue to be unable to generate the quality jobs the region needs.

Political culture indicators also herald bad news. All regional polls highlight the sentiment of democratic fatigue throughout Latin America, precisely 40 years after the beginning of the Third Wave of democracy (1978-1979). The data from the 2018 Latinobarómetro survey shed light on the midlife crisis Latin American democracy is experiencing: support for democracy fell to 48% (the lowest since 2001), indifference between democracy and authoritarianism rose from 16% to 28%, and dissatisfaction with democracy climbed from 51% to 71%, while satisfaction dropped from 44% to 24%.

Predictably, this sentiment of discontent and frustration negatively impacts trust toward political institutions, especially legislatures and parties. Both institutions have the lowest levels of citizen legitimacy in the region—21% and 13%, respectively—according to the 2018 Latinobarómetro survey. These figures confirm that voters are increasingly distancing themselves from parties (58% of Latin Americans say they have no party), and that there is widespread civil unrest and anger toward politics and ruling elites. Consequently, “politics has entered relatively uncharted territory”.

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