The study of past warm climates with high atmospheric CO2 concentrations is pivotal for understanding present trends and developing mitigation strategies for future scenarios. The Pliocene is the last long-lasting warm interval characterized by similar global climate circulation patterns and continental settings as today. Reconstructing Pliocene climate conditions from well-dated geological archives provides valuable insights into the climate forcing and pathways modulating the transfer of heat and humidity, and how these influence the sustainability of aquatic systems during a continuous warm interval. To address this challenge, the current project aims to undertake high-resolution multi-proxy analyses on the Erk-el-Ahmar (EEA) fluvio-lacustrine record dating back to the Pliocene and exposed in the Jordan Valley (Levantine Corridor).

The proposed research integrates high-resolution physical, geochemical, isotopic, and biological datasets derived from new sediment cores and outcrop samples into a single coherent paleoclimate framework. Through a combination of sedimentological analyses, mineralogical and elemental geochemistry, stable and clumped isotope thermometry, radiogenic isotope provenance tracing, and ostracod paleoecology, the study will disentangle external climate forcing from internal lake dynamics. A new Bayesian age-depth model based on U-Pb carbonate dating will refine the chronology, enabling correlation with orbital and sub-orbital cycles. Multivariate and time-series statistical analyses will then be employed to fuse all proxy results into a unified hydroclimate reconstruction model.

By synthesizing these diverse datasets into a consistent narrative, the project will illuminate how precipitation, evaporation, and ecosystem processes interacted under high-CO2 and high-temperature conditions. The outcomes will establish the first robust benchmark of Pliocene hydroclimate evolution in the Levantine Corridor, offering critical insight into thresholds of lake resilience, feedback mechanisms, and the persistence of freshwater systems under sustained global warmth. Ultimately, this research will provide a regional cornerstone for evaluating the behavior of continental hydrological systems in a future climate resembling that of the Pliocene.