Fertility Policy in China

One Child Policy (1980 ~ 2015)

• Background: Over-population problem

• Details:

  • Nation-wide enforcement

  • Strictly enforced:

    • A strict national household system registration was enforced to track the child number in a family.

    • Instructed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the local community conducted a random door-to-door check on the family size and forced abortion if an excessive pregnancy was found.

    • Violation of the policy by giving birth to a second or more child would have been punished with an amount of money that is difficult to afford by an average family

    • For those who are working in the government-affiliated organizations, violation of the policy resulted in job-loss

  • Exception:

    • Parents within some ethnic minority groups or those whose firstborn was handicapped were allowed to have more than one child

    • In the mid-1980s rural parents were allowed to have a second child if the first was a daughter

  • Counsequences

    • Pros:

      • Averted population numbered 360–520 million as of 2015 (Goodkind 2017)

      • Women empowerment

        • Increased education attainment (Tsui 2002)

        • Higher labor participation rate (Huang, Lei, and Sun 2015)

    • Cons:

      • Accelerated the aging process of the population

      • "Missing women" problem due to the son-preference culture (Li 1995; Qian 2008)

Two Child Policy (TCP)

1. Restricted TCP (1990 ~ 2011)

• Allow the second childbirth in urban families if both of the parents are the only child in their original families

• Conducted by province and area rather than a nationwide reform

2. National-wide Implementation of the restricted TCP (2011 ~ 2013)

3. New Restricted TCP (2013 ~ 2015)

• Allow the second childbirth as long as one of the parents is the only child in their original families

• Contributed to a lowering number of abortions and unregistered children, and a more normal sex ratio (Zeng and Hesketh 2016)

• The number of applications was far beyond anticipation, leading to the launch of the Universe TCP

4. Universe TCP (2015 ~ 2021)

• Allow all the parents to give birth to up to 2 children

• Considered ineffective due to the continuously lowering growth rate of the population

• Criticized due to inadequate support in relative policies, including child care facilities and maternity benefits

Three Child Policy (2021 ~ Present)

Graphs and Figures

1. Population

The population growth turns slower after 1990s due to the effect of the One Child Policy.

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2021

2. Birth Rate

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2021

Despite a decreasing birth rate, there was a bounce in 2016, to great extent due to the effect of the universal Two-Child Policy in 2015. However, the birth rate kept decreasing afterward, suggesting a limited effect of the Two-Child Policy while showing a necessity to the Three-Child Policy

3. Fertility Rate by Birth Order

• A short-term effectiveness of the TCP

Although the Total Fertility Rate for the first child kept decreasing, the second child's TFR increased in the 2010s, showing an increased response to the Two-Child Policy. During 2017-2018, the TFR for second child outnumbers the first child's, showing a prominent response to giving birth to a second child.

• In a longer term, the fertility rate decreases.

However, the TFR for both first and second child face a downward trend after 2017. Signifying a lowering fertility willingness.

4. Child number per women (Aged 24~41 in 2014)

The Average child number per women decreased since 2010, while facing a smoothing slope between 2012 and 2016, reflecting a slight response to the Two-child Policy.

Source: China Family Panel Studies 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 (Computed by editor)

References

Goodkind, D. (2017). "The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions". Demography, 54(4)

Huang, Wei, Xiaoyan Lei, and Ang Sun. (2015). “The Great Expectations : Impact of One-Child Policy on Education of Girls.” IZA Discussion Paper, no. 9301.

Jiali Li. (1995). “China’s One-Child Policy: How and How Well Has It Worked? A Case Study of Hebei Province, 1979-88.” Population & Development Review 21 (3): 563–85.

Qian, Nancy. (2008). “Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex-Specific Earnings on Sex Imbalance.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (3): 1251–85. 10.1162/qjec.2008.123.3.1251.

Tsui, Ming. (2002). “Educational Opportunity for Girls in Urban China.” Gender and Society 16 (1): 74–92.

Zeng, Yi, and Therese Hesketh. (2016). “The Eff Ects of China ’ s Universal Two-Child Policy.” Lancent 388 (1930–38). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31405-2.