PS536, Global Environmental Law and Policy
Spring Semester 2008
Session Outline - Week 11
The Climate Change Regime (the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol)
I. Chronology of the Global Climate Change Regime
1991 Negotiations begin in the INC
1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)
1995 COP2 Berlin) - Adopts Berlin Mandate
1997 COP3 (Kyoto, Japan) initial adoption of the Kyoto Protocol
1998 COP4 (Buenos Aires)
1999 COP5 (Bonn)
2000 COP6 (The Hague), resumed in July 2001 in Bonn
2001 COP7 (Marrakesh) - Finalizes Kyoto Protocol
2002 COP8 (New Delhi)
2003 COP9 (Milan) - Russia gives mixed signals on whether it will ratify the Kyoto Protocol
2004 COP10 (Buenos Aires) - Little progress made on next steps beyond the Kyoto Protocol
2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force following Russian ratification in December 2004
2005 COP11/MOP1 (Montreal) - first Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Montreal Protocol
2006 COP12/MOP2 (Nairobi)
2007 UN Climate Summit (September 24)
II. Emissions of Carbon Dioxide (by nation and region)
Selected per capita emissions of CO2 in metric tons ---from consumption of energy
US 5.49 China 1.11
Canada 5.25 India .29
Russia 3.24 Kenya .08
UK 2.60 Afghan .01
Germany 2.79
France 1.80
World Average 1.19
III. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - 1992 (text)
192 ratifications (August 2007)
-Goal is to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"
-Applies to greenhouse gases generally
-Developed countries accept primary responsibility for the climate change problem
and agree to take first steps to address it
-Developed countries aim to return GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000
-Special consideration to most severely affected countries AND those affected by new rules
Alliance of Small Island States
IV. The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
Entry into force: 55 countries that account for as least 55% of CO2 emissions of industrial nations in 1990)
List of Ratifying Countries (178 countries as of Jan 2008--account of 63.7% of emissions)
Signed by the US in 1998, but not ratified, rejected in 2001
Differentiated reduction targets for industrialized (annex I) countries, which are
legally binding on those that ratify the agreement
differentiated--different percentages for different nations (see below)
applies to a "basket" of six greenhouse gases
-carbon dioxide
-nitrous oxide
-methane
-hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)---substitute for CFCs
-perfluorocarbons
-sulfur hexafluoride
to be achieved by 2008-12 (average emissions)
may be offset by enhancement of carbon sinks
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-8% European Community, Switzerland, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Estonia
-7% United States
-6% Japan, Canada, Hungary
-5% Croatia
0% Russia, Ukraine, New Zealand
+1% Norway
+8% Australia
+10% Iceland
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Flexibility (Kyoto) mechanisms
"In Asia, a Hot Market for Carbon," Business Week, December 12, 2006
Bubble option (adjusted targets for European Union countries)
Belgium -7.5
Denmark -21
Germany -21
Greece +25
Spain +15
France 0
Ireland +13
Italy -6.5
Luxembourg -28
Netherlands -6
Austria -13
Portugal +27
Finland 0
Sweden +4
UK -12.5
Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions
"Change in Emissions, 1990-2004," UNFCCC website
VI. Ongoing and Future Climate Change Negotiations
UNFCCC/Kyoto Process
"US Backs Down in Bali, Climate Pact is Result of Reversal," Raleigh News and Observer, December 16, 2007
Group of Eight (G8) Annual Summits
Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development & Climate (launched January 2006)
(includes US, India, China, Korea, Australia, Canada, and Japan)
United Nations High Level Event on Climate Change (New York, September 24, 2007)
One day event, 150 countries represented. including 70 HOS
Purpose to build momentum for the Bali COP13/MOP3
included representatives from Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France,Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, South Africa, United Kingdom, the EU, the EC, and the UN.
Led by President Bush, emphasis on technology and voluntary measures
VII. US Laws, Policies, and Legislation Regarding Climate Change
Federal Level
Congress
State Level
Freeze power plant emissions at current level, reduce by 10% by 2020
California's Response to Climate Change
Committed to reduce total emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, (would require 25% reduction from currrent levels)
Emissions to be reduced 80% from 1990 levels by 2050
Reduce tailpipe emissions 30% between 2009 and 2016 (18 other states have pledged or committed to California
standard.
Western Climate Initiative (launched in 2007)
Includes California, Oregon, Washington, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, British Columbia, Manitoba
States case against the EPA (Supreme Court Case) (2006-07)
12 states sue EPA for not regulating CO2 from vehicles under the 2003 Clean Air Act
Municipal Level
U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement (list of cities)
Corporate Community (see Wikopedia entry)
Pew Center Business and Environmental Leadership Council
VIII. Beyond Kyoto: Issues for the Future
What goals be established for mitigating climate change?
Limits on the amount of global warming that takes place? On concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere?
Targets and dates for future reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
Will developing countries agree to limit their GHG emissions?
Issues of justice and equity
Technological and economic assistance
In what ways is global climate change a serious security issue for the United States and other countries?
How much emphasis will be placed on adapting to climate change?
National versus international approaches
Responsibility of developed countries to assist poor countries adapt
What role will the United States in future efforts to limit climate change and address its impacts?
How would abrupt changes impact international cooperation on climate change?