PS536, Global Environmental Law and Policy
Spring Semester 2008
Session Outline - Week 10
The Climate Change Regime - Scientific Issues
I. International Scientific Cooperation
1871 International Meteorological Organization (IMO) created
1950 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) created to succeed the IMO
1957-58 International Geophysical Year (IGY)
1963 World Weather Watch (WWW) begun, sponsored by WMO
1968-81 Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP), sponsored by WMO
1979 First World Climate Conference
1980 World Climate Research Programme (WCP) begun, sponsored by WMO/UNEP
1986 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) launched, sponsored by ICSU
1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established, sponsored by WMO/UNEP
1990 Second World Climate Conference
II. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
-Raison d'être
-Modus operendi
-Reports
First Assessment Report (1990)
Second Assessment Report (1995)
Third Assessment Report (2001)
Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
Video of speech by Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC Chairman
Working Group I - Physical Science Basis
Working Group II - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Working Group III - Mitigation of Climate Change
III. The Normal Science of Climate Change
Theoretical Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect
diagram of the greenhouse effect
comparisons of the atmospheres of Venus, Earth and Mars
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 rate of increase accelerating
Paleoclimatological Research
temperature and CO2 concentrations over past 400,000 years
"Ice 'Bubbles Reveal Biggest Rise in CO2 for 800,000 Years," Independent/UK, Sept. 6, 2006
"Global Temperatures Highest in Millennia," AP, September 26, 2006
Contemporary Weather Records
Trends in global annual mean temperatures
2005 and the warmest year since 1880; followed by 1998 nad 2007 (tie), 2002, 2003, and 2006
The 8 warmest years have all occurred since 1998
The 14 warmest years have all occurred since 1990
Global average temperatures tend to be higher during El Nino cycles (map of Pacific Ocean)
Projections of Global Climate Models
Foresees an increase of 2.0 to 4.5 degree C (by the time global average mean temperatures if GHG concentrations double from preindustrial levels, likely during the 21st century)
90+% chance that human activities are main driver of increased global temperature over the past century
"Global Warming will Step up After 2009," Science News, August 9, 2007
"How Can You Predict Climate if You Can't Predict Rain," Christian Science Monitor, October 18, 2007
IV. The Potential for Abrupt Global Climate Change
Temperatures over past 15,000 years
"Has an Ocean Circulation Collapse Been Triggered," Science Daily, Feb 17, 2008
Film - Scientific American, Hot Climate - Cold Comfort
V. Impacts of Global Warming
Level 1 - Climatic Impacts
-Changes in average and record temperatures
-Altered rainfall patterns (droughts, intense precipitation events)
"Century of Drought," Independent/UK, October 4, 2006
"Report: Jet Stream Shift is Expanding the Earth's Tropics and Deserts," USA Today, May 25, 2006
-Frequency of extreme events (storms, hurricanes, heat waves, etc)
Level 2 - Environmental Impacts
-Rising sea levels
-Retreating glaciers, sea ice, permafrost (National Snow and Ice Data Center)
Decline of Arctic sea ice
Melting and movement of Greenland glaciers
Melting of Antarctic glaciers
Breakup of Antarctic ice shelves
"Antarctic Ice Sheet Distintegration Underscores a Warming World," National Snow and Ice Data Center, Marach 25, 2008
Decline of glaciers globally
"World's Glaciers Melt at the Fastest Rate in 5000 Years," Guardian/UK, March 16, 2008
-Thawing of permafrost
-Inceased incidence of forest and range fires
-Altered streamflows
-Species migrations or extinctions of plant and animal species
-Changes in forest composition and health
-Impacts on marine life
"Climate Change Has Major Impact on Oceans," Science Daily, February 17, 2008
Level 3 - Impacts on Humans and Human Activities
-Agricultural production
"World's Most Important Crops Hit by Global Warming Effects," Independent/UK, March 19, 2007
-Water scarcity
"Water for Millions at Risk as Glaciers Melt Away," Guardian/UK, October 11, 2006
"Warming Triggers 'Alarming' Retreat of Himalayan Glaciers," McClatchy Newspapers, May 12, 2007
-Energy production (especially hydroelectric)
-Inundation of low lyingcoastal areas, including cities
"Government Reports Warn Planners on Sea-Rise Threat to US Coasts," New York Times, March 12, 2008
-Impacts on tourism, such as ski resorts
-Spread of diseases,
-Heat stress
20,000 deaths in Europe in the summer 2003
France --- 14,800 additional deaths during heat wave of summer 2003
Level 4 - Social/Political Impacts
-frequency of war and civil unrest (security implications)
-migrations of people
"EU Told to Prepare for Flood of Climate Change Migrants," Gardian/UK, March 10, 2008
-growing gap between the rich and poor