PS336, Global Environmental Politics
Fall Semester 2005
Week 12 Outlines
Monday, October 31 - National Policies on Climate Change
The future of the Kyoto Protocol and the Climate Change Negotiations?
European perspectives on the Kyoto Protocol and climate change
The role of the US in combatting climate change
The policies of the Bush Administration on climate change
Statement by Paula Dobriansky, US Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, March 4, 2004
US Congress (the McClain- Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act -2003)
State and local initiatives to curb GHG emissions
As of 2003 half of the states are addressing climate change through legislation
Attorneys General of eight Northeastern states file suit against five piggest power plant emitters of CO2
Northeast states emission cap-and-trade plan
California Law (2004) will req;uire model year 2009 cars and light tructs to begin reducing CO2 and
other gases by 30% by 2016. (Gov. Schwarzenegger calls for a 80% reduction in GHG emissions
over next five decades
US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement
Corporate Initiatives (Pew Center Business and Environmental Leadership Council)
Duke Energy's CEO Advocates Carbon Tax
Cinergy Statement on Global Warming
Ford to Write Report on Global Warming
The role of the developing countries in addressing global climate change
Emissions rising rapidly in China, India, and other developing countries. Will they accept limits in the next protocol on climate change?
Potential technological fixes (How realistic are they?)
alternative energy sources (wind, solar, nuclear, hydrogen)
space shields (mirrors, wire mesh, micro balloons, metallic scatterers)
fertilizing oceans (to stimulate the growth of CO2 absorbing phytoplankton)
altered agricultural practices (no-till practices)
caputuring and sequestering carbon (deep in the earth or the seabed)
Choice between mitigating (slowing climate change) versus adapting to climate change
What are the prospects?
Wednesday, November 2 - International Politics of Petroleum
Energy Information Administration
I. Recent History of Petroleum Prices and Politics
1950s and 1960s --
Western oil companies dominant, "Seven Sisters" control oil production in producer states in the Middle East
Price held very low
Limits on imports into the US to allow domestic industry to be profitable
1970s
The rise of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)
Oil producing countries nationalize their oil fields
First Energy Crisis (1973-1974) - Outgrowth of Yom Kipper War between Israel and Arab neighbors
Embargo by Arab members of OPEC against US and other allies of Israel
Sharp rise in oil prices -- severe gasoline shortages in some states in the US
Temporary return to normal in late 70s (some reduction of oil prices)
President Carter's Plan for Energy Independence
Second energy crisis (1979-1980)
Follows revolution in Iran
Iraq attacks Iran in 1980
Price of oil doubles again inducing strong pressures for
1980s
Bust in oil prices
Production comes on line in other countries
Mexico
Norway and the UK
Nigeria
1990s
The Persian Gulf War
Iraq kept out of the exporting of oil
Collapse of the Soviet Union as a major oil exporting country
2000s
Russia returns as a major exporter of oil
Rising global demand for oil (triggered by countries such as China)
Political turbulence in Venezuela
Tightening oil market leads to record prices on international markets
II. Issues for the United States
Increasing dependence on imports to satisfy demand for oil
Economic Issues (growing trade deficits)
Future dependence on Middle Eastern region for oil
(location of remaining reserves)
Related Security issues
Parade Magazine's (October 2, 2005) greatest risks to US oil supply
1. Collapse of Saudi Arabia (through a coup against the royal family or destruction of oil fields)
2. Political instability in Venequela (or other major oil producing nations, or another US war
3. Natural disaster (such as a hurricane or earthquake)
4. Terrorism (or accidents that destroy a refinery or major oil pipeline
5. Increased competition from China and India
Leading Countries with Oil Reserves
US 22.4
Includes crude oil imported for storage in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
* Formerly Zaire
**Includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
Source: Petroleum Supply Annual 2003, Volume 1; Table 21
Leading Oil Producing Nations (daily production in millions of barrels)
Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 8.8
United States 5.4
Iran 4.0
China 3.5
Mexico 3.4
Norway 3.0
UAE 2.5
Nigeria 2.5
Kuwait 2.4
Iraq 2.0
Friday, November 4 - Law of the Sea (I) - Historical Evolution
I. Primary Uses of Ocean Areas
Navigation and Overflight
Fishing
Sink for Pollutants
Seabed Resources
Off-shore oil and gas
Seabed minerals
II. Competing Principals of Ocean Law
Freedom of the Seas
Hugo Grotius (Mare Liberum, 1609)
Exclusive Claims
Treaty of Tordesillas (1494)
John Selden (1635)
Three-mile territorial waters
(the "cannon shot rule")
Common Heritage of Mankind
Arvid Pardo (1967)
III. UN Conferences on the Law of the Sea
UNCLOS I (1958) --- attended by 84 countries
Adoption of four treaties on
-territorial seas and continguous zones
-continental shelves
-high seas
-fishing and the conservation of living resources
UNCLOS II (1960) --- attended by 88 countries
No additional agreement
UNCLOS III (1973-1982) -- attended by 149 countries at the beginning
Adopted the Convention on the Law of the Sea to be discussed at the next class session.