Week 11 Outline

PS336, Global Environmental Politics 

Fall Semester 2005

Week 11 Outlines

Monday October 24 - Impacts of Global Warming  (Including Potential for Abrupt Global Climate Change) 

          EPA Global Warming Site 

I.    Climate Changes

Averages/extremes    

Extreme weather events   (storms, hurricanes, etc)

II.   Environmental Impacts

• sea levels

  •     .09 to .88 meter rise foreseen between 1990 and 2100 by the IPCC (2001 report) 

  •              China sea level rise

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  • glaciers/sea ice/permafrost   (National Snow and Ice Data Center) 

  •        Retreat of glaciers globally

  •        Breakup of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf off Canada between 2000 and 2002  (150 sq. mile)

  •        Breakup of Larsen-B ice shelf off Antarctica              Report on West Antarctic Ice Sheet

•        

  • • Over past 70 years, average winter temperatures have risen by as much as 7 degrees F in Alaska, 

    • Western Canada, and eastern Russia.

  • species migrations, extinctions 

  •     

  •        2004 article in Nature projects that 15-37% of 1,103 species studied will become extinct by 2050 due to a warming climate

  •      

  • forest and range fires 

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  • floods, droughts, stream flow 

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III.    Economic/Social Impacts

• energy sector 

•  

  • agriculture 

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  • forestry 

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  • fisheries 

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  • human health 

  •       WMO attributes 150,000 deaths to global warming in 2000 (mostly due to the spread of deseases)

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  •        France  --- 14,800 additional deaths during heat wave of summer 2003

  • tourist industry 

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IV.  Differential impacts on regions and countries 

Poorer countries may be more impacted by climate change 

Poor countries have less capacity to adapt to impacts 

Wednesday, October 26:   Film:  "Future Conditional"

                      Not Being Shown To Allow for a cay of Catch-up on the Lectures

Friday, October 28 -  Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol

I.    Emissions of CO² - 1992 metric tons per capita

             Emissions of Carbon Dioxide 

            Alliance of Small Island States

II.  Chronology of the Global Climate Change Regime

• 1991    Negotiations begin in the INC

• 1992    Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

• 1995    COP2   (Berlin)  - Adopts Berlin Mandate

• 1997    COP3  (Kyoto, Japan)  initial adoption of the Kyoto Protocol

• 1998    COP4  (Buenos Aires)

• 1999    COP5  (Bonn)

• 2000    COP6  (The Hague), resumed in July 2001 in Bonn

• 2001   COP7 (Marrakesh)  -  Finalizes Kyoto Protocol

• 2002     COP8  (New Delhi)

• 2003     COP9 (Milan)   -  Russia gives mixed signals on whether it will ratify the Kyoto Protocol

• 2004     COP10 (Buenos Aires)  -  Little progress made on next steps beyond the Kyoto Protocol

•  2005    Kyoto Protocol enters into force following Russian ratification in December 2004

                         (Ratification requirement -  55 countries must ratify the treaty including countries that are responsible

                                    for 55% of CO2 emissions of the developed countries in 1990)

• 2005   COP/MOP1 (Montreal)  -  first Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Montreal Protocol

III.    Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) - 1992

• • Goal is to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"

    • Applies to greenhouse gases generally

    • Developed countries accept primary responsibility for the climate change problem and agree to take 

    •         first steps to address it

    • Developed countries aim to return GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000

    • Special consideration to most severely affected countries AND those affected by new rules

                         189 ratifications by April 2004

IV.    The Kyoto Protocol (1997)

• Developed countries agreed to a mandatory reduction of their GHG emissions averaging 5.2%

• Reduction is to be from 1990 levels and acheived by 2008 - 2012 (average for those five years)

• Applies to a "basket" of six greenhouse gases

-carbon dioxide 

-nitrous oxide 

-methane 

 -hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)---substitute for CFCs 

 -perfluorocarbons 

 -sulfur hexafluoride

• Differentiated emission targets for industrial countries

• May be offset by enhancement of carbon sinks

• May be offset by "flexibility mechanisms"

                 emission trading  (purchasing credits from countries that have more than exceeded their limits)

                joint implementation  (investing in emission saving projects in other developed countries)

               clean development mechanism  (investing in emission saving projects in developing countries) 

• May be achieved collectively by groups of countries--the "bubble" concept

                Differentiated commitments negotiated within a group of countries

                This is being elected by the European Union to achieve an 8% reduction

Belgium                -7.5 

Denmark              -21 

Gemany               -21 

Greece                +25 

Spain                   +15 

France                     0 

Ireland                  +13 

Italy                      -6.5 

Luxembourg          -28 

Netherlands            -6 

Austria                  -13 

Portugal                +27 

Finland                    0 

Sweden                  +4 

United Kingdom   -12.5

                                            UN-GRID Data on Emissions

                                            List of Ratifying Countries     (156 countries as of Sept 2005)