Lecture Outline - March 20
Impacts of Global Warming -Including Potential for Abrupt Global Climate Change
I. Climate Changes
Averages/extremes
Extreme weather events (storms, hurricanes, etc)
II. Environmental Impacts
sea levels
.09 to .88 meter rise foreseen between 1990 and 2100 by the IPCC (2001 report)
glaciers/sea ice/permafrost (National Snow and Ice Data Center)
Retreat of glaciers globally
Breakup of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf off Canada between 2000 and 2002 (150 sq. mile)
Breakup of Larsen-B ice shelf off Antarctica Report on West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Over past 70 years, average winter temperatures have risen by as much as 7 degrees F in Alaska,Western Canada, and eastern Russia
species migrations and extinctions
2004 article in Nature projects that 15-37% of 1,103 species studied will become extinct by 2050 due to a warming climate
forest and range fires
floods, droughts, stream flow
III. Economic/Social Impacts
energy sector
agriculture
forestry
fisheries
human health
WMO attributes 150,000 deaths to global warming in 2000 (mostly due to the spread of deseases)
France --- 14,800 additional deaths during heat wave of summer 2003
tourist industry
IV. The Potential for Abrupt Global Climate Change
Film - Scientific American, Hot Climate - Cold Comfort
Abrupt Climate Change and US National Security (Pentagon Report-2004)-see .pdf in margin
National Academy of Sciences Report on Abrupt Climate Change--2002