PS336, Global Environmental Politics
Spring Semeter 2005
Week 7-8 Outlines
Articles in Science journal related to Hurricane Katrina
Monday, September 16 - The Issue of Population Migrations---Class Discussion
Prior to class, please read the assigned reading for the date:
Matthew Connelly and Paul Kennedy "Must It be The Rest Against the West?" Atlantic Monthly, December 1994, pp. 61-84.
UN High Commission for Refugees (World Map) Statistics on Refugees
Questions to consider in reading the Connelly/Kennedy article:
1. What issues do Connelly and Kennedy raise by referring to the plot of Raspail's Camp of Saints?
2. Are there contemporary real world examples of immigrants seeking to come to the developed world by boat that bear some resemblance to the Camp of Saints?
3. What are the contemporary circumstances in the world that cause Connelly and Kennedy to warn that the pressures for migration from the poor to rich countries could increase dramatically during the 21st century?
4. Does the Connelly/Kennedy article have implications for the immigration policies of the United States?
Negative Population Growth (an NGO)
5. What proposals do Connelly/Kennedy offer for reducing pressures of the poor to immigrate to the developed countries?
Wednesday, September 28 - The Global Food Situation
I. The Malthusian Predicament
"Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio, Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio"---
Essays on the Principle of Population, 1798
Neo-Malthusians --- leading example is Lester Brown, former President of the
World Watch Institute
II. Trends in global food production
The "Green Revolution" (the legacy of Norman Borlaug)
and the "Blue Revolution"
Recent Trends
Earth Policy Institute, Consumption and Production of Grains
How many people can be fed at current levels of consumption?
2.5 billion at US level of consumption (800 kg/capita)
5 billion at Italy's level (400 kg/capita)
7.5 at China's level (300 kg/capita)
10 billion at India's level (200 kg/capita)
III. The continuing prevalence of hunger
The Global Food Paradox --
The world produces more food per head than ever before in human history.
Yet amid this abundance, more than 730 million people did not eat enough to lead fully productive working lives.
--- Brundtland Commission Report, Our Common Future, 1987
FAO Figures (2000) -- World Hunger Facts 2005
842 million are undernourished (15% of the world's population)
-798 million in the developing countries
-34 million in the countries in transition (former Soviet bloc)
-10 million in the industrialized countries
The number increased by 12 million during latter 1990s (mostly in India and Congo)
FAO, State of Food Insecurity in the World 2003
BBC, Drought Spreads Across Africa
Why does hunger continue to be so widespread?
Poverty (people are too poor to purchase adequate food)
Low level of agricultural development
Inequitable distribution of land
Cash cropping for export
Government pricing policies
Wars and unrest
Environmental factor (droughts, dissertification, land degradation)
Human diseases (in particular HIV/AIDS)
IV. The Outlook for the Future
Declines in availability of land per capita
Trends in productivity per acre
Leveling off of world's fish catch
Effects of global climate change
Impact of the "gene revolution"
Friday, September 30 - The Flap Over Genetically Modified Food
I. The Nature of the Gene Revolution
Primary Crops
soybeans
corn
cotton
potatoes
fish
trees
Qualities of genetically modified organisms
Bt Crops (bacillus thuringiensis) - produce an insect killing toxin
Round Up resistent crops
More rapid growth
Terminator crops
II. Concerns about GM crops
Potential evolution of superpests (weeds or insects)
Potential impacts on nontargeted species
Contamination of non-GM crops
Potential Impacts on human health
III. International conflict over trade in GM crops
Should countries have the right to restrict imports of GM products?
Should GM products be segregated from those that are not?
Should GM products be labeled?
Position of exporting nations --
(Known as the Miami Group---US, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, and Uruguay)
Position of the importing countries --- (in particular the European countries)
Position of developing countries
IV. Consumer Boycotts organized by NGOs
V. The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (2000)
Entered into force -- 2003 (upon 50th ratification), 125 as of Oct 3, 2005 (ratifications)
Conference of the Parties #1 - Kwala Lumpur, Malaysia
Addresses potential risks that living modified organisms (LMOs) may pose to the
environment (not health issues)
Based on the "precautionary principle"
In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation. (Article 15 of the Rio Declaration, 1992)
Advanced informed consent (AIA) required for first exports of LMOs to a country
Bulk shipments of LMO commodities intended for food or feed to me
marked "may contain LMOs and are not intended to be introduced into
the environment"
Labelling for consumers is not required
VI. Trade Issues between The US and European Union
1999 - EU imposes a ban on importation bio-engineered food
2003 - US (Canada, and Argentina) file complaint against EU ban in the World Trade Organization
(for not being based on science)
2004 - European Union approves BT-11 corn for sale in EU (but with strict labeling rules)
Also approves MON810 maize for planting (resistent to European corn borer)
Also approves MON810 maize for planting (resistent to European corn borer)
Monday, October 3: Population, Food, and Environmental Issues in China
I. China's Potential Impact on Global Food Supplies
(Issues raised by Lester Brown in Who Will Feed China (1995)
Continued growth in population
Economic growth (GNP has grown four-fold since 1978)
Limitations on Production (availability of land and water)
China becoming a net importer of food
Increasing international competition for food imports
Implications of rising food prices for poorer countries