February 16, 2009 Session
Global Climate Change: Is It the Ultimate Environmental Challenge?
The Science of Climate Change
Naomi Oreskes, "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," Science, December 3, 2004, p. 1686
Donald Kennedy, "Climate Change and Climate Science," Science, June 11, 2004, p 1565.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Greenhouse Effect (Planet Comparisons)
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2
"CO2 'highest for 650,000 years," BBC News,November 24, 2005
"Ice 'Bubbles Reveal Biggest Rise in CO2 for 800,000 Years," Independent/UK, Sept. 6, 2006
2005 and the warmest year since 1880; followed by 1998 and 2007 (tie), 2002, 2003, and 2006
The 8 warmest years have all occurred since 1998
The 14 warmest years have all occurred since 1990
2008 Ties as Eighth Warmest on Record
90+% chance that human activities are main driver of increased global temperature over past 50 years
(IPCC 2007 report)
Projections of Future Temperature Increases
IPCC 2007 report foresees an increase of 2.0 to 4.5 degree C (by the time global average mean temperatures if GHG
concentrations double from preindustrial levels, likely during the 21st century)
The Possibility of Abrupt Climate Change
"Abrupt Climate Change: Should We be Worried," Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2003
"Slight Changes in Climate May Trigger Abrupt Ecosystem Responses," Science Daily, January 18, 2009
"Abrupt Climate Change: Will It Happen This Century?" Science Daily, December 27, 2008
National Academy of Sciences Report on Abrupt Climate Change--2002
Abrupt Climate Change and US National Security (Pentagon Report-2004)
Some Actual and Potential Impacts of Climate Change
See EPA, Health and Environmental Effects of Climate Change
"End of Uncertainty," Sydney Morning Herald, February 14, 2009
"World's Glaciers Melt at the Fastest Rate in 5000 Years," Guardian?UK, March 16, 2008
"Antarctic Ice Sheet Distintegration Underscores a Warming World," National Snow and Ice Data Center, Marach 25, 2008
"Government Reports Warn Planners on Sea-Rise Threat to US Coasts," New York Times, March 12, 2008
"Warming of Glaciers Threatens Millions in China," San Francisco Chronical, August 1, 2007
"World's Most Important Crops Hit by Global Warming Effects," Independent/UK, March 19, 2007
"Report: Jet Stream Shift is Expanding the Earth's Tropics and Deserts," USA Today, May 25, 2006
"Century of Drought," Independent/UK, October 4, 2006
"Warming Means More Forest Fires," Missoulian, July 23, 2006
"Thirstier World Likely to See More Violence," InterPress Service, March 16, 2007.
"A Global Catastrophe of Our Own Making," Independent/UK, October 31, 2006 (impacts foreseen by Stern Report)
"Global Warming: Coming to Your Backyard," National Wildlife Federation, March 7, 2007
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (metric tons per capita 1992)
Emissions of Carbon Dioxide (comprehensive figures)
International Efforts to Address Global Climate Change
ratifications (192 countries as of August 2007)
United States was among the first countries to ratify this treaty.
Goal is to "prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"
Applies to greenhouse gases generally
Developed countries accept primary responsibility for the climate change problem and agree to take first steps to address it
Developed countries aim to return GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000
Special consideration to most severely affected countries AND those affected by new rules
Including small island nations (see Alliance of Small Island States)
The Kyoto Protocol (initially adopted in 1997, finalized in 2001)
List of Ratifying Countries (180 countries as of October 2008)
United States signed the treaty in 1998 but has not ratified it.
Developed countries agreed to a mandatory reduction of their GHG emissions averaging 5.2%
Reduction is to be from 1990 levels and achieved by 2008 - 2012 (average for those five years)
Applies to a "basket" of six greenhouse gases
-carbon dioxide
-nitrous oxide
-methane
-hydrofluorocarbons (HFC)---substitute for CFCs
-perfluorocarbons
-sulfur hexafluoride
Differentiated emission targets for industrial countries
Emissions may be offset by enhancement of carbon sinks
Emissions may be offset by "flexibility mechanisms"
emission trading (purchasing credits from countries that have more than exceeded their limits)
joint implementation (investing in emission saving projects in other developed countries)
clean development mechanism (investing in emission saving projects in developing countries)
May be achieved collectively by groups of countries--the "bubble" concept
Differentiated commitments negotiated within a group of countries
This is being elected by the European Union to achieve an 8% reduction
Denmark -21
Germany -21
Greece +25
Spain +15
France 0
Ireland +13
Luxembourg -28
Austria -13
Portugal +27
United Kingdom -12.5
How adequate is Kyoto as a response to global climate change?
"Change in Emissions, 1990-2004," UNFCCC website
"Carbon Emissions Show Sharp Rise," BBC, November 27, 2006
The Post Kyoto International Climate Change Negotiations
UNFCCC/Kyoto Process
"US Backs Down in Bali, Climate Pact is Result of Reversal," Raleigh News and Observer, December 16, 2007
COP14/MOP4 (Poznan, Poland) December 2008)
COP15/MOP5 (Copenhagen) (December 2009)
Group of Eight (G8) Annual Summits
Asian Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Change (launched January 2006)
United Nations High Level Event on Climate Change (New York, September 24, 2007)
One day event, 150 countries represented. including 70 HOS
included representatives from Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France,Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, South Africa, United Kingdom, the EU, the EC, and the UN.
Led by President Bush, emphasis on technology and voluntary measures
Long-Term Strategies
Mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit amount of change that takes place
Adaptation (adjust to the impacts of global climate change)
"Nations Urged to Adapt to Heat," Raleigh News and Observer, September 28, 2006.
"How to Keep New York Afloat," Christian Science Monitor, November 9, 2006
"Billions Needed to Climate-Proof Africa," Inter Press Service News Agency, November 1, 2006