DOCTOR DEFICIT PROJECTION IN GERMANY FOR NEXT 20 YEARS

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DOCTOR DEFICIT PROJECTION IN GERMANY FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS

What does this mean for Africa?

The analysis uses current and historical data to project the doctor deficit in Germany over the next 20 years (2024 - 2044) based on population trends and retirement age. It then dives further to ascertain what the result of this projection would mean for Africa.

To actualize the objective of this predictive analysis, data was sourced and gathered, including data on doctors in Germany, with figures on practicing doctors, retirement age, labor force, population, age distribution, and medical graduates. A few of the data collected were sourced from published research articles with already projected figures for some of the key variables such as mean retirement age, etc. with key data ranging from 1960 to 2070, covering percentages, projections, and numbers

The study requires data collection, exploration, analysis, and visualization to understand the evolving healthcare landscape in Germany and its potential effects on Africa.

A summary of the analysis entails analyzing the projected doctor deficit in Germany over the next 20 years by considering factors such as population trends, retirement age, and the number of medical graduates. The analysis includes estimating the supply and demand for doctors, forecasting the doctor deficit, and visualizing the projected trends. The implications of this doctor deficit in Germany for Africa are then discussed, focusing on potential impacts such as brain drain and healthcare disparities. 

Key findings observed from the analysis and plot show that the number of practicing doctors in Germany has increased steadily from 301,000 in 2002 to 428,500 in 2023, with a projected growth in the coming years. Germany's population is expected to reach 85 million by 2040, while the number of medical graduates rose to 10,320 in 2021.

The study concludes by noting that the projected increase in the aging population, particularly those aged 67 and above, will lead to a significant deficit of doctors in Germany over the next 20 years. The analysis shows a growing gap between the supply and demand of doctors, highlighting the need for strategic planning to address this issue.

Based on the result of the analysis and visuals as observed, the projected doctor deficit in Germany may lead to increased recruitment of doctors from African countries, exacerbating brain drain and healthcare disparities. Addressing this imbalance will require international collaboration and investment in healthcare infrastructure and education in Africa.

See the detailed analysis and report of this predictive analysis here or on GitHub