Conflict, Locusts, And Climate Change in Ethiopia

Climate change has a role but is not the main cause of ethnic conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts are generally thought of as the cause of war, (see water politics). Both the ethnic cleansing in Darfur and the current war in Tigrinya, a province of Ethiopia, were preceded by heavy rainfall rather than drought. According to the Correlates of War, poverty is the biggest cause of war. Whether this comes through redistribution of public goods, or economic hardship, such as is the case due to lockdown restrictions from COVID-19, the consequence is the same. Climate change could be a disruptive factor, as it causes rain cycles to be unpredictably intense. The items that led to war in Ethiopia include the following:

1. Political Reform: Ethiopia is divided into states by ethnic group, such as Tigrinya for Tigrayans, Amhara for the Amharic people, Oromia for the Oromo people, and other groups. The president is trying to make Ethiopia less ethnic and more unitary, as is the case in Switzerland, which also has multiple ethnolinguistic groups.

2. Redistribution of Public Goods: The reduction of government funds, being fired from important positions, and arrests on corruption charges, led to many of the Tigrayan government elite to be impoverished relative to their previous status as the leaders of military, intelligence, and government agencies, and more importantly the profitable state-owned enterprises.

3. Anti-Corruption: The arrest of key Tigrayan generals and leaders, but not the prime minister’s Oromo and Amharic political allies, made these arrests feel like an ethnic witch hunt to the average Tigrayan.

4. Change in Climate and Weather Patterns: The increase in rainfall led to a large infestation of grasshoppers in Tigrinya, eating the harvest that local farmers depend on.

5. Lockdowns: The poverty caused by COVID-19 restrictions.

6. Note that the belt of violence in the middle of the country is due to efforts by the Oromo people to kick out other minorities.

Map Author: Logan Bolan Date: December 9th, 2020 Data: Esri, HERE, CHIESA/AFERIA, University of York

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