Causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is at technique used in the research of future trends and predictions as a way of deconstructing the bases of existing predictions and constructing alternative future possibilities. It has some similarities to VITAE and ladder of inference but tends to be used in relation to larger social groups rather than individuals.

CLA involves examining phenomena at four levels or layers.

Litany — What do we say is happening?

This is the surface level, the articulated causal factors and explanations that are given when discussing future possibilities.

• How do we describe what is happening and what we expect to happen?

• What facts do we give credence to in our reasoning and what do we overlook?

• What immediate reasons do we give for events?

Systems and structures — How do we think this happens?

This is the second level, the interplay of contextual factors, stakeholders and power structures that support the litany.

• Where did our explanations come from?

• Who benefits from the explanations?

• What barriers prevent alternative explanations from surfacing?

Worldview — Why do we believe this happens?

This is the third level, the opinions and belief systems that shape and power the structures.

• What are the unstated rules?

• What ideologies and values underpin these structures?

• Whose opinions and priorities influence these beliefs?

Myth and metaphor — Who do we identify ourselves as?

This is the fourth level, the narratives we tell ourselves about where we come from and what our purpose is.

• What archetypal narratives do we tell ourselves about who we are?

• What aspects of our self-image are we trying to promote or preserve?

Constructing an alternative future involves:

• Creating new myths

• Shifting worldviews to match the new myths

• Constructing systems to support the new worldviews

• Articulating litanies based on the new systems