Report Structure

Time Series Summary

Introduction

In this section you may well talk about your reasons for selecting the variable you have chosen to investigate.

Your research may have helped you to identify reasons for your interest. Why you have chosen the variable that you have.

You may have some thoughts as to who this would be useful to.

Can you consider the impact of other variables eg Population changes

Plan

What you are going to do.

Use Excel to calculate a smoothed moving mean

Find an equation for the graph then use this and average seasonal effects to help make predictions

Question:

This will identify:

• The data you wish to investigate

• Remember full details are essential: time period, units, context

And possibly

• why you have selected it,

• What aspects are of interest to you?

And what you are going to predict

Analysis Part A

Use of Excel:

• Graphing of data

• Smoothing data to get a trend line and its equation

• Individual seasonal effects

These will help to find an appropriate model and make a prediction

Make sure you are very aware of the order of moving mean – you need to be able to calculate a seasonal effect for each season.

Watch your starting and finishing points – check formulae to ensure you match.

Make sure you make align the first moving mean to a different position in the cell

Also when selecting data to graph make sure it is all selected from the same row.

Analysis Part B

Comments – will identify features in the data and make

a forecast

Must contain:

1. A quantitative description of the linear trend line in context eg at rate of $0.24million dollars every month (rate of change is the gradient of your trend line.) State the years that this is over and make sure you have looked at the units!!!

2. Seasonal patterns described all related to context

3. Other relevant features are identified and possibly connected to an event

4. A forecast is made and justified ie, working is shown.

This part will essentially lift your grade from A → M → E

The detail you are able to add may help to justify and add insight into your conclusions.

Look at nature of peaks and troughs, how far above and below trend line is their actual value These ones have considerable variance which should be noted and where possible a reason given (justification)

Eg. Values from ____ to approx. _____all tend to be above/below the trend line. Why? Can you find reference to this time period in your research?

If there is quite a rapid escalation up or down – why did this happen.

With further research you can add justification as to what has happened on your graph as opposed to simply noting it.

However these are very significant years and should be noted even for Achieve.

Having made a prediction you must comment on it – are you confident or are there reasons why it may not be valid?

• Does you trend line model your data well?

• Are peaks, troughs fairly consistent?

• Are there possible unforeseen events?

• Is an alternative model an option?

Conclusion

Must be consistent with the findings and the purpose of the investigation and answer your question. Essentially this is a summary of your findings.

Your conclusion can go back and re-iterate/summarise aspects of your data that may have an impact on your analysis and your prediction.

Possibilities of a more viable model? Disadvantages?

BUT

You MUST make sure you address the original question for your investigation