Analysis of the above graph:

- Is the trend increasing, decreasing, or stable?

Increasing

- Where does the moving mean start and finish?

1.84 million jobs in 2005 to 1.91 million jobs in 2011

- What is the increase per year?

(1.91-1.84) ÷ 6 = 0.012 million jobs (3dp)

-Is it a piecewise function?

Yes, increasing from Jan 2005 to June 2008, decreasing June 2008 to September 2009, increasing from September 2009 onwards.

Research:

- Why do we see this trend?

Increase could be due to growing economy, but more likely to be due to the growing population of NZ.

- What is the reason if there is a change in trend direction

Decrease due to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Putting long term trend together (What you should be writing):

Overall the trend in the total filled jobs in NZ is increasing. The moving mean increases from 1.84 million jobs in 2005 to 1.91 million jobs in 2011. Over this six year period we see an average increase of 12,000 (=0.012 million) jobs per year.

Although this graph is overall increasing it varies across this time period. From January 2005 until June 2008 we see an increasing trend from 1.84 million to 1.96 million filled jobs, however the trend is then decreases from June 2008 (1.96 million filled jobs) until September 2009 (1.88 million filled jobs), and following this the trend continues on an increasing trend to 1.91 million filled jobs in August 20111.

The reason for the increase overall although could be due to a growth in the economy, is more likely related to the growth in NZ's population. Statistics NZ shows over this period there is a steady increase in NZ's population (source). Interestingly, the decrease in the June 2008 to September 2009 is most likely attributed to the Global Financial Crisis that impacted the NZ economy and causing job losses (source).

Analysis of the above graph:

- Is there a repeating pattern?

The data shows there is a common repeating pattern across the 12 months of each year.

- Do any peak/s occur?

Peaks occur in both December and March each year. December on average being 0.0574 (from table) million above the trend line, and March on average being 0.031 (from table) million above the trend line.

- Do any trough/s occur?

A trough occurs each year in January, where on average it is 0.0538 (from table) million below the trend line.

Jan 2008 is not the same as other Januaries (less severe)

Research:

- Why might peaks and troughs occur at these points?

Reasons for peaks occurring in December could be due to rush in leading up to Christmas, and people getting casual work over this period (source), whereas March is a busy time for seasonal work of the harvesting of fruit such as kiwifruit, employing many people (source).

The trough could be explained because January is a common time for people to take holidays in NZ, being the peak of summer. Additionally people may have been on year long contracts running from January - December. Meaning when January comes they could be looking for employment.

Putting seasonality together (What you should be writing):

In the number of filled jobs in NZ there is a common repeating pattern across the 12 months of each year. There are peaks that occur in both December and March each year. December is on average being 57,400 filled jobs above the trend line, and March on average being 31,000 filled jobs above the trend line. A trough occurs each year in January, where on average it is 53,800 filled jobs below the trend line. The peaks and troughs seem to be a similar height away from the trend line with the exception of the trough in January 2008 where the trough is much less severe and closer to the trend line.

The reasons for peaks occurring in December could be due to rush in leading up to Christmas, and people getting casual work over this period to fill the increase of activity in the retail sector across this time (source). Whereas March is a busy time for seasonal work of the harvesting of fruit such as kiwifruit, employing many people (source). Although some a lot of these positions are filled by tourists on a Working Holiday visa, which would mean it would not have an impact on NZ's unemployment rate.

The trough could be explained because January is a common time for people to take holidays in NZ, being the peak of summer. Additionally people may have been on year long contracts running from January - December. Meaning when January comes they could be looking for employment.