Wildlife vulnerability to climate change: Quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing climate impacts

Dr. Marta Lyons

Climate Impacts Ecologist at the USGS Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center

Abstract

Abstract: Anticipating species and population responses to a changing climate is critical for evaluating how management actions will aid or potentially hinder wildlife climate adaptation. This seminar will explore quantitative and qualitative methods for predicting direct and indirect effects of climate change on wildlife, incorporating both climate projections and management actions. Depending on decision timelines, partner needs, and available data, quantitative ecological modeling of climate impacts is not always the best approach. This seminar will walk through two contrasting examples using quantitative modeling and qualitative assessments. First, quantitative models developed for leveraging large National Park nesting datasets to predict current and future beach availability and nest success for loggerhead sea turtles in southeastern Parks, and second an ongoing project with US Fish and Wildlife Service qualitatively summarizing climate impacts to priority species including raptors, salamanders, turtles, and freshwater invertebrates.