2021 Canadian

In the aftermath of the last election, it seemed quite likely that the Parliament was going to definitely call an election before 2023. It was merely when it was going to happen, and the pandemic definitely delayed the inevitable. Despite the fact that I saw it coming, when the news broke in mid August, it felt like a sudden surprise, especially considering when the election was going to be (20 Sep).

At the time PM Trudeau called the election, he had a healthy lead in the polls, and the general consensus was that if he were to call an election, he would have no issue regaining the majority. However, in that first week, that apparent lead was largely evaporated, with the Opposition's messaging about the nature of this election resonating with the Canadian public to an overwhelming degree (that this election is completely unnecessary and is only happening because Trudeau wants his majority back). While that lead has mostly evaporated, giving the chances of a similar outcome to two years ago being very high. At the current moment, it is shaping up to be what 2008 was for the CPC.

My prediction methodology is not that much more advanced than two years ago, but I really do not have the time to come up with a satisfactory model in this case.

Final Prediction

Seat Range:

LPC: 124-171 (-34 to +13)

CPC: 105-147 (-16 to +26)

NDP: 23-40 (-1 to +16)

BQC: 28-40 (-4 to +8)

GPC: 1-3 (-1 to +1)

With Tossups

No Tossup Map

Results

Analysis:

This prediction fared far better than 2 years ago, but the LPC squeezed more votes from the NDP than I had expected, causing them to gain a few seats in the Toronto Metro and Vancouver Metro that I did not expect. This means that aside from Atlantic Canada and Vancouver, one can barely tell that the map has changed at all. In conclusion: this election was pointlessly called, and the result was that this election was pointless.

Totals:
LPC: 159 (+1)

CPC: 119 (-2)

BQC: 33 (+1)

NDP: 25 (+1)

GPC: 2 (n/c)

Percent Margin Map

Roughly, 0-1-5-15+