2019/2020

In the US political realm, 2019 doesn't really exist. There are three relatively uncompetitive governor elections in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky.

I will aim to update this model every day until the election (I may not be able to). Models are mostly polls-only (there are some voting patterns and trends factored in, but it's a tiny factor). Where I used 270towin’s embed feature to show the maps, I will now use a picture of them in YAPms. Click on the map to open it. This will totally not backfire later lol

2020

Trump appears to be in better shape than most incumbents. He has a steady raw and net approval just shy of Obama's, despite all the misfortune in 2020. He also is going up against a weak field (which narrowed to Biden) and can manage to turn surprising amounts of Republicans to get up just to tick a box with his name on it, allowing him to be the first incumbent in a quarter century, and the fourth ever to win more votes than his eventual challenger.

The GOP in 2018 also fared better than the Dems in 2010. Here's what happened:

- The GOP lost 40 seats, and has gained two of those back, compared to the Dems loss of 62

- The GOP had a net gain in the Senate of two seats, compared to the Dems loss of 6 (though the map did favor them)

- The GOP did lose more governor's mansions (7, compared to the Dems 6), but retained Iowa, Ohio, and Florida, while making other states competitive.

Looking at this data, the President looks to be in good shape, despite the polls, the economy, and the chaos. I would like to note that most presidents gain on their popular vote margin and also gain electoral votes in their reelection.

The Presidential election is accompanied by the biannual house elections, the Class 2 senate seats (plus Arizona and Georgia Class 3), and 11 governor races.

- In the House the GOP needs 18 from their 2018 total to gain the House. This is now 16, due to two very rare events: one rep defected to the GOP, and the GOP flipped a seat in a special election on May 12.

- In the Senate, the Democrats need 3 or 4 seats to win the Senate. This will be difficult, but not impossible as these Senate races will be pinned to the presidential election.

- The set of governors up are not very competitive. Montana and Missouri appear to be the most competitive, followed by New Hampshire and North Carolina (which may be out of play looking at the polls).

If I had to describe this election right now, I would say it's analogous to a Jenga tower precisely one move from collapse (technically it's three, but that's being too pedantic).

Here’s the list of retirements:

House:

26 R (AL 1&2; CA-8; FL 3&19; GA 7,9,14; IL-15; IN-5; KS-1; LA-5; MI-10; MT; NY-2; NC 2&6; OR-2; TN-1; TX 11,13,17,22,23,24; UT-1; WI-5)

7D (CA-53; HI-2; IN-1; IA-2; MA-4; NY 15&17; WA-10)

In addition Dan Lipinski (D IL-3), Steve King (R IA-4), Denver Riggleman (R VA-5), Eliot Engel (D NY-16), Scott Tipton (R CO-3), Lacy Clay (D MO-1), Steve Watkins (R KS-2), and Ross Spano (R FL-15) lost renomination.

Vacated seats (in order): NC-9, PA-12, NC-3, WI-7, NY-27, MD-7, CA-25, CA-50, NC-11, TX-4, GA-5

Senate: 3 R (TN, KS, WY), 1D (NM)

Governor: 1D (MT), 2R (MS, UT)