House of Representatives

435 seats are up. Ratings are shown for the Nov 3 election. GA-5 has a special election runoff in December, but it is two Dems against each other (not surprised at all). The more solid color on the map, the more confidence I have in the seat going to that party.

NC recently redistricted their seats for 2020 on the grounds of partisan gerrymandering. The map they came up with is arguably worse than what they had before.

I am no longer giving four maps with the tiers of confidence, but I will still be giving a high confidence map.

I recently changed my model for this to factor in rematches where applicable. District polling, where it exists, is now factored in. National polling, and approval rating of congress are still factored in, and for this unique election, the voting trends of mail in/IPEV/Election day will be too (I don't think the GOP will lead by double digits on Election Day votes).

This model will get better the more data we have. Surprisingly low data here just a week out tho. This could hurt me. Tilt seats are technically tossups, but in order to keep every seat filled, I have given it to the party that most likely has the momentum there.

Final Ratings

Dems have the edge (57.5% chance) to hold the House

High Confidence

Complete Predictions

Actual Results

Analysis and Post mortem:

Looks like I overestimated blue dog dems just about everywhere, with the only one I underestimated being Ben McAdams (UT-4). I also vastly underestimated the democrat trend in the Atlanta suburbs (GA-6 and GA-7). Compared to 2018, it seems that I have learned, and that I got it vaguely right.

There were some parts of the nation where Trump's coattails carried representatives to victory or made the result far closer, and there were some where down ballot GOP outperformed Trump by 5-10% (see the Texas suburbs)

You can definitely see where Trump's coattails were in effect because, where I may have gotten the winner right, I didn't mark the seat as competitive, but it ended up being much closer than I'd expected.

Seats where the coattail effect occurred: AZ-1, FL-13, IL-17, IA-3, NV-3, OH-13, PA-8, PA-17, TX-15, WI-3

Now for the seats I got wrong. The colored text is which party I favored

Seats Wrong within standard error: IL-14, NJ-7, NY-22, PA-17, SC-1

Seats massively off: GA-6 (10% off), MN-7 (17% off), NJ-3 (12% off)

Other seats wrong: CA-21 (6% off), GA-7 (7% off), NY-2 (7% off), NY-11 (9% off), OR-4 (7% off), TX-7 (5% off), TX-22 (8% off)

Total seats wrong: 15; 8 favoring GOP, 7 favoring Dem.

I have redeemed myself from my embarrasing 2018 House map.