House of Representatives

As per usual, all 435 seats are up. But this set of elections is special: it will be the first one after the 2020 US Census, and its new reapportionment and districts.

In the 2020 Census, these states now have a different number of representatives from the 2010's:

California - 52 (-1); Colorado - 8 (+1); Florida - 28 (+1); Illinois - 17 (-1); Michigan - 13 (-1); Montana - 2 (+1); New York - 26 (-1); North Carolina - 14 (+1); Ohio - 15 (-1); Oregon - 6 (+1); Pennsylvania - 17 (-1); Texas - 38 (+2); West Virginia - 2 (-1)

All maps are finally set for 2022

Editable 2022 House Maps are finally available.

FINAL RATINGS

High Confidence

Highly Competitive

Full Ratings

The following maps will not be editable but I have made up for it by adding a lot of features to this.

The redistricting process is over, and while the editable maps are above, I still feel that having the numerical models up is still valuable. They will differ from what I have put above, but will likely converge when polling gets factored in around about June or July.

By default, you are only seeing the 2022 House election forecast model

Clicking the button on the left will toggle between showing the house election forecasts and the 2020 Presidential results on these maps

The button on the right will jump you into a set of maps that attempt to simulate the last decade of US House elections on these maps

FINAL CALCULATIONS

Dems: 152 Safe, 18 Likely, 21 Leans, 14 Tilt+Tossup = 205

GOP: 188 Safe, 17 Likely, 8 Leans, 17 Tilt+Tossup = 230

I also made a set of congressional maps myself of what I thought would be decently fair for each state. Here is the national map below

The button on the left will allow you to toggle between the 2022 forecast and the 2020 presidential results, while the button on the right attempts to simulate the past five house elections under these lines

Dems: 153 Safe, 20 Likely, 20 Leans, 18 Tilt+Tossup = 211

GOP: 174 Safe, 21 Likely, 18 Leans, 11 Tilt+Tossup = 224

Here are all of the forecasted maps I made.

These were all made and drawn initially around March 2021, and then updated in late August 2021, when the 2020 Census data came out. When the census numbers came out, only two states at that time had any draft maps on the table: Colorado, and Illinois. As a result, every map you see below was drawn by myself, using partisan lean data on DRA, some of which with only 2016 (and occasionally) 2018 data to work with. There are two exceptions to this, being Illinois, which I had to reconstruct from screenshots, and California, where the predicted map was not updated with the Census results, but instead in early December.

Not every map got its own forecast: Of the 44 states with more than one district, five states used my fair maps (at that time) as the forecasted lines: Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, and West Virginia.

Full Calculations for these maps:

Dem: 154 Safe, 26 Likely, 18 Lean Dem, 6 Tilt+Tossup = 204

GOP: 202 Safe, 19 Likely, 9 Leans, 7 Tilt+Tossup = 231