2021/2022

Odd number years are very quiet. 2021 is even more quiet than 2019, with only two governor races: New Jersey and Virginia. Click this to see the ratings for the governors elections for 2021 and 2022

Biden's first two years have been very rocky and unusual for a sitting president. With the razor-thin mandate Biden was given, and a very bitter Republican opposition over said mandate has blocked practically anything major the Biden administration has wanted to do apart from military spending. Biden has also not helped his cause with an out of touch administration, optically looking to undo everything former President Trump accomplished, including broadly popular policies that kept a sustainable and resilient US economy. Economically speaking, the US is in severe malaise, and on the brink of a major recession, and has been almost the second since Biden took office, which has been continually weakening the already weak mandate he had into one that barely exists now. This puts Biden and the Democratic Party at one of the weakest positions in US politics. This is further exacerbated by this also being a reapportionment/redistricting cycle meaning that the state legislatures (at least traditionally) get to redraw their districts to pick their new voters, making their corresponding house elections very noncompetitive. To be fair, it is nowhere near as bad as it has been historically due to a rise in anti-gerrymandering sentiment nationwide, but it only has manifested in less than a fifth of the states so far, most of which are Democratic leaning states. The Democrats have a lot to defend and an electorate not enthusiastic to vote for them, which has caused, especially in the House, a wave of retirements, which are historically high for the Democrats.

Win Chance Tables

2022 Congressional FINAL

Governor FINAL

Incumbent politicians ineligible/not running for re election:

(Note text both bolded and underlined means that the incumbent lost renomination)

Governor: Northam (D-VA), Ducey (R-AZ), Hutchinson (R-AR), Ige (D-HI), Hogan (R-MD), Ricketts (R-NE), Brown (D-OR), Wolf (D-PA), Baker (R-MA)

Senate: Shelby (R-AL), Blunt (R-MO), Burr (R-NC), Portman (R-OH), Toomey (R-PA), Leahy (D-VT)

House: Brooks (AL-5), Kirkpatrick (AZ-2), McNerney (CA-9), Speier (CA-14), Conway (CA-22), Bass (CA-37), Roybal-Abbard (CA-40), Lowenthal (CA-47), Perlmutter (CO-7), Murphy (FL-7), Demmings (FL-10), Crist (FL-13), Deutch (FL-22), Bordeaux (GA-7), Hice (GA-10), Kahele (HI-2), Rush (IL-1), Newman (IL-3), R Davis (IL-13), Kinzinger (IL-16), Bustos (IL-17), Hollingsworth (IN-9), Yarmuth (KY-3), Brown (MD-4), Meijer (MI-3), Upton (MI-6), Levin (MI-9), Lawrence (MI-14), Hartzler (MO-4), Long (MO-7), Sires (NJ-8), Zeeldin (NY-1), Suozzi (NY-3), Rice (NY-4), Katko (NY-24), Jacobs (NY-27), Butterfield (NC-1), Price (NC-4), Cawthorn (NC-11), Budd (NC-13), Gibbs (OH-7), Ryan (OH-13), Gonzalez (OH-16), Mullin (OK-2), DeFazio (OR-4), Schrader (OR-5), Keller (PA-12), Lamb (PA-17), Doyle (PA-18), Langevin (RI-2), Rice (SC-7), Gohmert (TX-1), Taylor (TX-3), Brady (TX-8), Johnson (TX-30), Welch (VT), Beutler (WA-3), McKinley (WV-1), Kind (WI-3), Cheney (WY)

Current House Vacancies: IN-2 (Election scheduled for 8 Nov 2022)