2021|2022 Governor

Only two governor races are up in 2021: New Jersey and Virginia. Both (at least at the current moment) are slowly shifting more republican in the polls than I was even expecting initially. I do recognize the Republicans have apparently put forward stronger candidates that fit those states better, but I am still skeptical that any of these governor races will flip, though Virginia could be a close race.

Viriginia will be all down to the DC suburbs. If the GOP can make inroads in an area that has not just grown rapidly in the last decade, but also shifted demographically, they have a very strong shot to win.

New Jersey just looks to be somewhat more competitive than how it votes on the federal level. This is a common trend in the eastern seaboard states, but I wouldn't expect the governor's race here to get narrower than 10%.

I will also update the ratings for the 2022 Governor races until Nov 2, in which a separate page will be made for those.

Final Ratings for 2021 Gubernatorial Elections

Win Chances (and Forecasted Margin) for 2021 Gubernatorial Elections:
New Jersey: Murphy 83% (Murphy +9.2)

Virginia: Youngkin 54% (Youngkin +0.5)

High Confidence

Highly Competitive

Full Ratings