House of Representatives

All 435 seats are up, just like every other year.

I used 270towin.com to generate these predictions, and I have four tiers of these: High Confidence, Competitive, Very Close, and Full Predictions.

There are four tiers of each color: Dark (Safe, >95% Confidence), Medium (Likely, >65% Confidence), Light (Leans, >55% Confidence), and Low Opacity (Tilt, Very Low Confidence, <55%). On all maps, except for full results, there is a tan color, which is for seats that fall within the margin of that map.

Editable maps are provided for all maps except for full predictions.

Final Predictions (+/- 6 seats)

Highest Confidence:

Competitive (Safe+Likely Ratings only):

Very Close (Safe, Likely, and Lean):

I'd recommend using this map as your baseline for your predictions.

Complete Projections (No Tossups):

Results:

Note: CA-10 used to have a bug on its maps where it showed as solid Democrat. On the image, it is lean D by the margin indicated. Also, because of the NC redistricting, enjoy the graphical glitches.

Color Key

0% - 4% = Low Opacity

4% - 8% = Light

8% - 12.5% = Medium

>12.5% = Solid

My analysis: Had I actually gone with the national polls for this, rather than give a 2pt shift to them (bc why not), I would have been closer to the result. In addition, a lot of late district polls overblew the margin (see TX-23) and resulted in a mess. Combine this with a lot of late surprises and I ended up being way off.