Monographs and dissertations

The dissertation is devoted to research of theoretical and practical aspects of national economic power as a determinant of developments in the global economy. The thesis defines conceptual foundations of economic power, its criteria and factors, assesses its distribution between countries, estimates the effects for international economic relations, and provides recommendations for participation of Ukraine in foreign economic activities allowing for its economic power.

In the first section economic power is defined as the capacity of a country to use economic means in order to influence other economic entities and global economic trends, and to resist external pressure. Economic power is closely related to size of economy, national wealth, resource potential, competitiveness, development, economic security, sovereignty and stability. A multi-criteria typology of economic power is elaborated. The main types include hard economic power, which is based on the real economic resources of a country and efficiency of their use, and soft economic power, which relies on advantages of the national social and economic model and conformity of the national economic policies with the interests of the domestic and foreign individuals. The author proposes the notion of synchronization power and adaptive power. The structural elements of the theoretical mechanism of using economic power include sources of the power, existence or absence of coercion, motivation for using force and forms of materialization (economic leadership, economic rivalry under competitive environment, expansion, exploitation, sanctions and economic wars).

The second section describes the factors of hard and soft national economic power and their transformation. Institutional foundations of national economic power include values, social and economic model, and institutional structure of the national and the global economies. There are disproportions in the factors of economic power possessed by the main centers of the global economy. The existing national economic power estimation methods are reviewed. The author elaborated the national hard economic power index based on the adjusted net national income of a country, improved the methods based on infometric approach and suggested the method of estimating the domestic component of the soft economic power.

The third section starts with the assessment of the current situation and trends in the global distribution of hard economic power. The global synchronization power centers and their spheres of influence are determined. There are estimates of the adaptive power of the countries within the system of integration agreements EU+, as well as the member states of the NAFTA, ASEAN and MERCOSUR. The infometric method and opinion polls method enabled to assess the imbalances in distribution of national soft economic power. There are also various attitudes of individuals towards the current situation and the economic development prospects in their countries. The section ends with the quantitative analysis of the interaction between the spheres of economic and soft influence of the global and regional powers.

The fourth section reviews the effects of the asymmetries in the economic power distribution between countries for international trade, investment, financial, technological and migration relations. The robustness of the effects under the modern post-crisis recovery of the global economy is tested. The author provides policy recommendations for economies of various size considering optimization of foreign economic relations with the aim of economic development and reproduction of economic power. The difference in motivation and effects of trade and monetary integration for small and large economies is assessed. Finally the author provides a forecast of the EU economic union enlargement considering country size of the potential countries for accession under various economic growth scenarios.

The fifth section starts with analyzing peculiarities of foreign economic relations of Ukraine as a medium-size economy. The analysis resulted in implications for tariff, investment, exchange rate and integration policies of Ukraine. The author provided a comparative analysis of the soft economic power of Ukraine and its neighbor countries, an assessment of the potential economic effect of disseminating positive information about the Ukrainian economy, and elaborated proposals for adaptation of the domestic business to the deficit of the national soft economic power. The section ends with the assessment of the motivation and effects of the economic conflict between Russia on the one hand and Western countries and Ukraine on the other hand. The author provides findings and recommendations about the prospects for Ukraine under the current system of economic powers.

Key words: national economic power, centers of economic power, structure of world economy, size of economy, country brand, international trade, international finance, economic integration, economic rivalry.

    The thesis is devoted to the research of common and peculiar regularities in the emergence of currency crises in the regions of the world in case of emerging economies, and grounding anticrisis measures.

    The author characterizes significant features of currency crisis phenomenon, its externals (depreciation of currency, decrease in foreign reserves, increase in interest rates, imposing new exchange restrictions, international rescue), systematizes types of currency crises. The thesis considers and classifies methods of dating currency crises, determines their advantages and disadvantages, introduces new methods.

    The work characterizes the first theoretical currency crisis models and directions of their further development, generalizes factors, affecting emergence of currency crises according to the theoretical models. Separately contagion channels are examined and classified. The author systematizes methodological approaches and the results of empirical research of factors affecting emergence of currency crises.

    The thesis provides intercountry comparative analysis of the development of currency crises in Latin America, East Asia, Eastern Europe. The author gives qualitative and quantitative evaluation of possible direct and indirect causes of currency crises emergence in specific cases, shows links between currency crises and other types of economic crises. Te effect of internal and external economic as well as several political factors are analyzed. System approach is used to generalize the mechanism of currency crisis development. Regional dissimilarities in cases under consideration are pointed out.

  Broad sample use enabled the analysis of the interaction of currency crises emergence factors from the following groups: exchange rate and prices, foreign trade, non-trade components of payment balance, foreign assets and obligations, money and interest rates, banking sector, public sector, real sector of economy and stock market, political and other factors. By calculating the probability of currency crisis emergence the author shows the effect of the factors ceteris paribus and under specific conditions: in five regions of the world and other groups of countries. The factors under consideration are classified by the significance and univocality of their effect. Possible causes of deviation in effect of the factors in different regions are examined. This approach enables the author determine target zones within economic indicators that minimize the risk of currency crisis.

    Further the research focuses on the evaluation of measures for preventing currency crises in different groups of countries with the respect to maximizing economic growth as well. The author analyses the consequences of currency crises for economic growth under specific conditions and how the government can minimize contraction effect for economic growth in the middle term perspective by influencing major externals of currency crisis, when it takes place. Possible distorting effects of the methods used for analysis are discussed. Finally the author recommends target zones within measures for currency crisis prevention under conditions, which are specific for Ukraine.

    Key words: currency crisis, economic factors of currency crises emergence, regions of the world, anticrisis measures, economic growth.