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'Godzilla' El Nino menaces farmers from India to Australia

A potentially severe El Niño is forecast to return in 2026, with meteorologists warning that conditions could produce a "super strong" or "Godzilla" El Niño not seen in 150 years. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration placed the odds of El Niño developing at 82%, with a 57% chance of it reaching "strong" or "very strong" intensity by September. Economists have estimated the total cost of the 1997–98 El Niño alone at up to $5.7 trillion, with the 2023 event projected to impose at least $3.4 trillion in cumulative costs over five years.

The human toll on agriculture across South and Southeast Asia stands to be severe. In the Philippines, farmers fear harvesting as little as 50% of what they plant, while in Malaysia, major reservoirs are already less than 10% full, prompting rice growers to delay planting by one to two months. In India, where 45% of cultivated areas rely solely on rainfall, the monsoon season is projected to deliver 10% below normal rainfall, threatening not only perishable crops but also cereals, pulses, oilseeds, and even animal proteins like eggs and meat. The crisis is compounded by a fertiliser shortage linked to the Iran war and rising fuel costs, with Malaysian rice farmers particularly squeezed because the government sets their crop prices while their costs keep rising.

Beyond agriculture, the El Niño threatens broader economic and social instability across the region. Dried-out peatlands in Indonesia and Malaysia risk catastrophic fires. Hydroelectric power generation, data centres, and water-cooled AI infrastructure face supply pressures, and in Malaysia, authorities may be forced to pivot back toward fossil fuels.