This year marks a critical test of the world’s response to the climate crisis, as countries submit new climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. These new national plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), will show how boldly countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, transform their economies, and strengthen resilience to growing climate threats like floods, wildfires and sea level rise.
WRI just updated the NDC Tracker hosted on Climate Watch which tracks which pledges have been submitted and now also quantifies their impact on emissions.
The NDC Tracker’s new data shows that unconditional targets from the 22 NDCs submitted thus far — representing 21% of global emissions — could collectively slash an additional 1.4 gigatonnes of CO2e by 2035, compared to countries’ previous 2030 targets. This leaves an 18.5 gigatonne gap to limit warming to 2°C, and a 29.5 gigatonne gap to avoiding 1.5°C.
WRI published an article today that offers deeper insights on national climate commitments including emerging trends across these plans, what to watch from major emitters and what it all means for the path ahead. Read the article here.
Not surprisingly, the greatest emission reductions would stem from larger economies that need to cut emissions the most. The NDC Tracker’s new “country breakdown view” shows that if fully achieved, the United States’ NDC (submitted by the Biden administration) would further curb emissions by 0.85 Gt by 2035 while Brazil and Japan would slash emissions by 0.25 Gt and 0.19 Gt respectively.
The Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conducts research on:
for the second consecutive year, global temperatures have shattered summer heat records. Scientists have confirmed that June to August 2024 is officially the hottest summer since records began. We're talking about a scorching 0.69°C rise above the 1991–2020 average, narrowly beating last summer’s record.
And see further down page below
Extreme heat is increasingly affecting global habits and productivity, leading to an estimated $2.4 trillion in losses annually by 2030. This intensifying phenomenon threatens health, contributing to issues like heart disease and accelerated aging. Adaptations include a surge in air conditioning demand, with a predicted tripling of use by 2050, and changes in daily activities such as reduced outdoor recreation and increased indoor socialization. Employers are modifying work schedules to mitigate heat stress among workers. Urgent implementation of heat preparedness strategies is essential to protect vulnerable populations as extreme temperatures rise.
If we reach 1.5°C, this is what is going to happen:
It’s clear: to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, we must urgently limit global warming to 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree matters—beyond 1.5°C, the risks and damages from extreme weather, sea-level rise, and biodiversity loss increase dramatically.
If we hit 1.5°C, it will lead to:
🌡️Extreme Weather: A rise of 1.5°C, compared to 2°C, can significantly reduce the severity of heatwaves, floods, and droughts.
☀️Health Impact: Climate change is already a global health emergency, with millions affected by heat-related illnesses, malnutrition, and disease.
👎Irreversible Damage: Exceeding 1.5°C could trigger irreversible tipping points, such as the collapse of coral reefs and thawing of permafrost, with devastating consequences.
There is still hope. Climate innovations are emerging rapidly, and it is our choice to implement them. We can drive down the emissions and protect our planet.
A fundamental rule of physics is that the atmosphere can hold nearly 4% more moisture for every degree Fahrenheit the air warms (7% more for every degree Celsius). Globally, temperatures have increased about 2 degrees (1.1 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times.
Senior Geospatial Data Scientist / Independent Researcher
1w
This morning started with an excellent question in the Guardian: How does today’s extreme heat compare with Earth’s past climate? (see Heat-History BUTOON above) I have been thinking about this question for some time, and I am happy that Matthew Huber was able to confirm my intuition: “It has not been as hot as this for at least 125,000 years, prior to the last ice age, and most likely longer, potentially going back at least 1M years.”
Why is this important? It has been even hotter. The Eocene, a time 56m to 34m years ago, was more than 10 to 15 degrees hotter than today’s climate. Unfortunately, while true, this has led to the belief that this one degree should not matter much, but I think this is a misconception; the preindustrial temperature was a sweet point for human development, a point from where we could evolve into the global society we are today, but we are moving out of this “comfort” zone. To give an example, I will not talk about “more oceanside property”, but when considering sea level rise (as one of the effects of this 1-degree temperature rise), Katharine Hayhoe put it very accurately: “We are perfectly adapted to our current conditions. Two-thirds of the world’s largest cities are located within a metre of sea level.”
In less than 250 years, our climate changed to a state last seen 3M years ago, and our actions are causing this acceleration; we are rapidly releasing long-stored solar energy at a rate faster than natural processes can lock it in again. Changing the climate, as we have done, in such a short period is dangerous because these changes usually happen over millions of years, and we managed to do this in a fraction of the time in which Earth typically goes through such transformation.
I agree with Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist at Columbia University: “The change [in global temperatures] isn’t a surprise. What is a surprise is that we’re continuing to do this without acting in an emergency to address the challenge.”
Simulation of temperature changes from 1850 to 2021 - Video
In climate change studies, temperature anomalies are more important than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly is the difference from an average, or baseline, temperature. The baseline temperature is typically computed by averaging 30 or more years of temperature data.
LOOK -- USEFUL TOOLS
Human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drive climate change. About 60% of GHG emissions come from just 10 countries, while the 100 least-emitting contributed less than 3%. Energy makes up nearly three-quarters of global emissions, followed by agriculture. Within the energy sector, the largest emitting sector is electricity and heat generation , followed by transportation and manufacturing. Land use, land use-change and forestry (LULUCF) is both a source and sink of emissions and key sector to get to net-zero emissions. SEE THE VISUALISATION BY CLICKING THE BUTTON TO THE RIGHT.
There are 26 links to Visuals showing different kinds of emissions. linked by the BUTTON below.
Particulate matter (PM). Particulate matter is the term used to describe particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 micrometres or less. From a p hysico-chemical standpoint, dust is a complex mixture consisting of both directly emitted and secondarily formed components of natural and anthropogenic origin (e.g. soot, geological material, abraded particles and biological material) and has a very diverse composition (heavy metals, sulphates, nitrates, ammonium, organic carbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, dioxins/furans). PM2.5 are particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less. They are critical in connection with health effects. PM is formed during industrial production processes, combustion processes, mechanical processes (abrasion of surface materials and generation of fugitive dust) and as a secondary formation (from SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC). Characteristics: solid and liquid particles of varying sizes and composition. Effects: fine particles and soot can cause respiratorya nd cardiovascular disorders, increased mortality and cancer risk; dust deposition can cause
contamination of the soil, plants and also, via the food chain, human exposure to heavy metals and dioxins/furans contained in dust.
Nitrogen oxides (NOx= NO+NO2). Nitrogen oxides is a generic term encompassing nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen monoxide (NO). Because NO rapidly oxidizes to NO2, the emissions are expressed in terms of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) equivalents. Nitrogen oxides are formed during combustion of heating and motor fuels, especially at high temperatures. Characteristics: NO is a colourless gas, converted in the
atmosphere to NO2; NO2 assumes a r eddish colour at higher concentrations. Effects: respiratory disorders, extensive damage to plants and sensitive ecosystems through the combined action of several pollutants (acidification) and overfertilization of ecosystems.
https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Documents/Doc%209889.SGAR.WG2.Initial%20Update.pdf
AIR POLLUTION RESOURCES
VISIT and COMPARE: World Air Quality Index site: https://waqi.info
Latest NZ study: https://environment.govt.nz/assets/publications/HAPINZ/HAPINZ-3.0-Findings-and-implications.pdf
(4) http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/pollution-overview/
(5) https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/what-are-main-sources-urban-air-pollution
(6) http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/ (go to "Where there is Smoke")
(7) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1SgmFa0r04
(8) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-35333076
(9) http://www.mfe.govt.nz/air/specific-air-pollutants
(10) https://www.ecowatch.com/gas-appliances-indoor-air-pollution-health-2645924303.html?rebelltitem=2#rebelltitem2 -- lists issue with using gas cooking ranges and nitrogen dioxide levels.
(11) https://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/air/health-effects-co-no2-so2-ozone-benzene-and-benzoapyrene-new-zealand. -- READ as covers most of the air pollutants in NZ
https://annalsofglobalhealth.org/collections/five-national-academies-call-for-global-compact-on-air-pollution-and-health
SCIENCE: VOL. 386, NO. 6718HIDDEN COMET TAILS OF MARINE SNOW IMPEDE OCEAN-BASED CARBON SEQUESTRATION
NO ACCESS
RESEARCH ARTICLE
CARBON CYCLE
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RAHUL CHAJWA HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-6488-1834, ELIOTT FLAUM HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0001-8737-7967, KAY D. BIDLE HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0003-4170-412X, BENJAMIN VAN MOOY HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-2804-6508, AND MANU PRAKASH HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-8046-8388 Authors Info & Affiliations
SCIENCE
11 Oct 2024
Vol 386, Issue 6718
DOI: 10.1126/science.adl57671,7641
Sinking marine particulate organic matter, commonly called “marine snow,” moves huge amounts of carbon from the new-surface ocean to depth, constituting one of the major components of Earth’s carbon cycle. The biological and physical complexity of these particles, together with the wide range of lengths and timescales that are involved in their motion, have made it exceedingly difficult to determine their dynamics in detail. Chajwa et al. used microscopic imaging to show that these particles universally exhibit a tail-like flow morphology that greatly influences their movement and how much carbon they sequester in the deep ocean (see the Perspective by Cael and Guidi). —Jesse Smith
Phytoplankton in the upper layer of the ocean agglomerates and sinks under gravity, giving rise to a natural carbon transport mechanism termed “biological pump.” The perpetual shower of soft and fragile marine snow in the ocean is estimated to be annually sequestering 2 to 4.5 billion tons of carbon from the atmosphere into the abyss, regulating both the atmospheric carbon dioxideand the sustenance of marine ecosystems. A predictive underpinning of marine snow is thus crucial. However, we currently lack a quantitative microphysics-based framework for the formation, sedimentation, and remineralization of marine snow, leading to major uncertainties in the current carbon flux estimates in climate models.
Because sedimentation physics is at the heart of marine snow phenomena, we took an observation-driven approach to addressing this problem. Based on the 19th-century paradigm of Stokes’ law and its ad hoc generalizations, researchers had been seeking a universal trend in how size is related to sinking speed in marine snow. Because marine snow is a structurally complex soft matter that deforms while sinking under its own weight, it violates key assumptions underlying Stokes’ law and presents a classic two-way fluid-structure coupling that remained unexplored. To directly investigate the sinking dynamics of this complex object, we organized an ocean expedition (Cruise ID: EN667) during an algal bloom in the Gulf of Maine (42.5°N, 69.5°W). Marine snow aggregates were collected through freely hanging sediment traps in multiple deployments at a depth of 80 m. To directly observe sedimentation dynamics of these aggregates at sea, we utilized a new scale-free vertical tracking microscope mounted on a two-axis gimbal that minimized mechanical noise from ship’s motion and allowed us to track small aggregate (equivalent spherical diameter < 750 μm ) sinking over long times. To visualize the flow around sinking aggregates, we used a tracer bead (diameter 700 nm to 2 μm) solution.
By directly measuring the sinking velocities and detailed flows around individual marine snow particles, we discovered a new morphological feature in marine snow: a physical invisible comet tail forming a halo around a visible particulate matter during sedimentation. These hitherto-unseen comet tails are made of viscoelastic transparent exopolymer, which fundamentally modifies the sinking behavior. Our observations guided a new theoretical framework based on Stokesian sedimentation in which we included this previously invisible degree of freedom and constructed a reduced-order model for these compound particles. Furthermore, the combination of field experiments and theory enabled a sedimentation-based measurement of the elastic response of the mucus. We corroborated these findings with three-dimensional volumetric imaging of marine snow particles, which illuminate the heterogeneous microstructure of marine snow.
Through detailed analysis of more than 100 marine snow aggregates studied individually, we discovered hidden comet tails that effectively act as “physical” drag lines on sinking marine snow. This mucus-induced impedance almost doubles the estimate of mean residence time of marine snow in the Euphotic zone, nearly halting some particles to a standstill. This suggests a substantial overestimate in the flux inferred by using only the visible size of a marine snow particle. The discovery of multiphase nature of marine snow and a new conceptual framework that incorporates the invisible degrees of freedom in the sedimentation dynamics lays the foundation for understanding the formation, sedimentation, and remineralization of marine snow in the purview of physics. The crucial role of viscoelasticity of marine mucus as one of the knobs of carbon flux opens rich possibilities for studying biological origin of mucus and its complex rheology in the open oceans and potential biogeoengineering remediation.
Hidden comet tails of marine snow.
(A) A simplified depiction of carbon sequestration in the biological pump through marine snow. (B) Experimental data: (Left) Image of sinking marine snow visualized with tracer beads in the background and (right) fluid flow corresponding to the same particle showing the invisible mucus tail (yellow region) that falls along with the particle, greatly increasing the particle’s effective size. (C) Impact of mucus on sedimentation: Mucus greatly increases the time marine snow can spend in the upper layers of the ocean, presenting a natural knob in this carbon flux. ρm, mucus density; ρsw, sea water density; ρp, particulate density; a, semiminor axis of the mucus comet tail; b, semimajor axis of the mucus comet tail; l, size of the visible aggregate.
Gravity-driven sinking of “marine snow” sequesters carbon in the ocean, constituting a key biological pump that regulates Earth’s climate. A mechanistic understanding of this phenomenon is obscured by the biological richness of these aggregates and a lack of direct observation of their sedimentation physics. Utilizing a scale-free vertical tracking microscopy in a field setting, we present microhydrodynamic measurements of freshly collected marine snow aggregates from sediment traps. Our observations reveal hitherto-unknown comet-like morphology arising from fluid-structure interactions of transparent exopolymer halos around sinking aggregates. These invisible comet tails slow down individual particles, greatly increasing their residence time. Based on these findings, we constructed a reduced-order model for the Stokesian sedimentation of these mucus-embedded two-phase particles, paving the way toward a predictive understanding of marine snow.