The feasibility and implementation of the P Risk algorithm version 1.0

CPMS code:  53885

Lead Network: West of England

Study Summary

Psychosis is a serious, long-lasting mental illness. Symptoms include hallucinations and strange, fixed thoughts, called delusions. Treating psychosis costs the NHS about £2 billion per year. Psychosis can be devastating for sufferers and their families and outcomes are often poor with many people becoming ill again after recovery. The best way to improve outcomes is to ensure that people who are at risk of psychosis receive specialist care quickly. Most people enter specialist mental health care via their GP, but GPs report difficulties in detecting the warning signs of psychosis. Also, people do not always see the same GP when they visit their surgery and so small changes in their mental health can be missed. The research team used a very large data set of GP records, provided by the Clinical Research Practice Datalink and held at the University of Bristol, to teach the computer to spot who is likely to develop psychosis. We have called this tool P risk. We already know that P Risk is accurate and can predict who will get psychosis about 80% of the time. However, we do not yet know if it will work in the real world on GP computers, or what patients, their families, GPs and mental health staff think about it. We need this information before P Risk can be used in GP surgeries.

In this study we will: WP 1 Demonstrate that P Risk can be implemented in primary care data systems. WP 2 Collect baseline values of the outcome WP3 investigate the accuracy of P Risk and WP4 investigate the acceptability of P Risk.

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