The Republican Presidential Primary seemed over before it began, and now that it has begun, still seems over. Donald Trump is the only major candidate left in the race. With Trump cruising to renomination, the next biggest question is that of his running mate. His former vice president, Mike Pence, essentially took his name out of the picture when he refused to overturn the 2020 election results. That has left an open field and plenty of speculation as to who Trump will pick. Here are my predictions for who he will choose.

Who I’m Not Choosing

There are a couple of picks that have been talked about, but I’m hesitant to choose. The first of such, which could at first glance seem like an easy idea, would be Nikki Haley herself. This isn’t a popular pick for some obvious reasons; she and Trump aren’t exactly on the best of terms right now. Even regardless of Haley’s opposition to Trump and her unwillingness to leave the race, despite her continuous losing of primaries, choosing a primary opponent isn’t a big trend historically. This is amplified by Trump’s ability to hold a grudge against those who oppose him. Any remnant of a possibility for Haley to be Trump’s VP pick has been snuffed out by her continuing her campaign longer than others.

One pick—another primary opponent from South Carolina—is more promising than Haley, but still doesn’t seem likely to me. That would be Senator Tim Scott. Scott certainly has been positioning himself for the pick, but I’m still not convinced it will be enough. The main appeal of Scott, from a strategic standpoint, would be helping Trump gain more support from African Americans, only 12% of which voted for him in 2020. Republican strategists, like Brian Seitchik, have praised him for having “strong ties into the African American community.” I, among others, though, are unconvinced that Scott will substantially help Trump. Mondale Robinson, founder of the Black Male Voter Project, has criticized Scott for not representing the “needs, issues, and policies” of the Black community, further saying that he has not done enough to turnout Black voters. Scott’s opinions on issues of race align firmly with the Republican party, which is clear with his opposition to a police reform bill pushed by the Democrats after the murder of George Floyd. There is certainly logic for choosing Scott, and his subservience towards Trump helps his case. However, in my mind, he isn’t the best pick strategically.

My Pick

The choice who, in my opinion, makes the most sense, is one who is less well-known. My pick for Republican VP is South Dakota Governor, Kristi Noem. Although not as present in national politics, Noem’s track record as governor makes her an appealing candidate. During the Covid pandemic, she was firmly against restrictions. She sent the National Guard to the southern border, along with other Republican governors. She is for a complete abortion ban. In addition to her positions on important Republican issues, she actually does have a strategic advantage (unlike the aforementioned Scott). Noem presents a way for the Republican Party to win over some suburban women, who tend to vote Democratic. There is a legitimate question over whether or not a woman would be chosen for the Republican ticket, as it would be a first. It seems like Noem, with her conservative background and strategic advantage, would be the one to be the first.

As we have all seen over the past roughly 8 years, Trump is anything but predictable. I could see him choosing any number of people. My pick, Kristi Noem, is who I think would be the best choice for Trump’s chance at winning, and one of the more likely options. With his nomination for VP to come any day now, we won’t have to wait too long to learn who he chooses.