2024 04/25

SWMI AMS/NWA Chapter Meeting Minutes

Thursday, April 25

WMAA Flight Training Center

4151 Aviator Way, Grand Rapids, MI 49512

Officers Present: Alana Dachtler, Warren Wheeler, Aubrey Papke, Linda Paige

Attendance: Bruce Smith, William D Marino, Jim Carpenter, Kim & Cort Scholten, Tom Oosterbaan, Kreigh Tomaszewski

Call to order: 6:05 pm

          A Primer on Numerical Weather Prediction by Jaymes Kenyon

President Alana calls the meeting to order discusses chapter business and concludes that this is our last official meeting for the year. Still, in either June or July, we will conclude with an informal chapter picnic, location, and date TBD. Andy Schut gives the treasury report: Checking Account Balance: $37.79 Savings Account Balance: $769.51. Linda Paige announces the winter forecast winners:
Snowfall total at Grand Rapids (GRR): inches (measured to the nearest tenth of an inch) 47.5

Snowfall total at Muskegon (MKG): inches (measured to the nearest tenth of an inch) 55.5

Coldest temperature at Grand Rapids (GRR) airport: °F on [date] (measured to the nearest whole degree; the date will be used as a tiebreaker) -5 on Jan 15

Coldest temperature at Lansing (LAN) airport: °F on [date] (measured to the nearest whole degree; the date will be used as a tiebreaker) -4 on Jan 14 & Jan 15

Number of days staying at or below 32°F at Grand Rapids (GRR) airport: days (a calendar day, midnight to midnight) 16 

Jaymes is welcomed to the group and to start his presentation. He starts by talking about how he decided what to present, not wanting it to be a professional lecture. He talks about how he used to work at NOAA but now works remotely here in Michigan for the University of Colorado. He talks about the beautiful Boulder, Colorado where he use to live, and describes the NOAA David Skaggs Research Center and its four labs known as “Boulder labs”. This is The National Center of Atmospheric Research. 

He starts to discuss the historical developments in numerical weather prediction of V. and J. Bjerknes in 1922 in Norway and their development of theories. Jaymes goes on to describe The Primitive Equations and the fundamental equations to figure out six variables to stem further from. These equations also show tendencies and gradients which are also super important, “prognostic” and “diagnostic”.

Next, he describes Model Discretization, the next step after the equations, and how time ties into it. The next major experiment in developing numerical weather prediction was a British man named Lewis Fry Richardsowhoch wasn't accurate in weather prediction but his math was on the right track.

Next is a Hungarian man named Max Margules he discovers the flaws in the previous theories to add new theories to them.

Then in 1943-1945 one of the first digital programmable computers was called the Electronic Numerical Intergrator and Computer (ENIAC) which was a breakthrough.

Another study was found in 1939 named Carl Rossby of more theories.

In 1950 the first successful operational NWP using the ENIAC.

All of this has led to NOAAs supercomputing productions today at 29 petaflops (29 quadrillion a minute).

Jaymes talks about the very complex and unresolved processes they have today and the things they can do to best estimate.

Jaymes concludes with how technologically advanced everything has advanced. As well as how the HRRR is being replaced by the RUFES (which Jaymes is currently a part of helping with the process of this new model). Jaymes also talks about how AI is being introduced but that it will be post-processing instead of driving it, that everything goes back to human calculations of the primitive equations.

Jaymes opens it up to discussion and answers group members' questions.

Meeting adjourned: 8:01