Russia's Demographic Collapse

Russia, once seen as a major global superpower with a military that could rival the West, is facing a crisis it can't shoot its way out of: demographics. Its military is considered one of the world's strongest and it was seen as a rival to Western influence. However, it faces a major, irreversible crisis – its demographics. Indeed, lots of countries have falling birth rates and ageing populations, but in the case of Russia, its problems are unique to the country and its citizens’ way of life. No government can solve them.

Russia’s population peaked in 1993 at 149 million. In 2024, it decreased to 144 million. This fall of 5 million people per annum is a trend that will continue to snowball in the future, though it is not a steady decline. The population rose between 2009 to 2019, but nose-dived again over the last five years. Russian birth rates are falling off a cliff. In 2023, the birth rate was 11.329 per 1000 people, a 7.1% drop from 2020. These levels of decline have never been seen on such scales. UN predictions of Russia’s birth rate suggest the severity of this crisis, as birth rates are expected to reach 10.072 births per 1000 people by 2033. A major reason for this is abortion. Russians had over 500,000 abortions in 2022 alone, thanks to low contraceptive use and a rise in the number of working women. Russia’s death rates have also risen in recent years from 12.719 deaths per 1000 people in 2018 to 13.110 deaths per 1000 people in 2024. The last year when Russia recorded a positive natural increase in population was 2018, preceded by the year 1991, during the fall of the Soviet Union.

Russia would have experienced a severe population crisis if it were not for its high immigration rates. Russians from ex-USSR states used to move to the country regularly from Central Asian nations like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Russia was long seen as a regional economic hub and attracted more people as a result. However, this trend has been reversing due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war with Ukraine. The pandemic prevented the movement of people into the country.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has not only caused the deaths of approximately 200,000 but also a mass exodus from the country in which almost a million people had left in 2022. This emigration is exacerbated by the fact that a majority of the people leaving are part of Russia’s young, educated population. These tend to be the citizens who are more critical of the special military operation and Putin’s authoritarianism. They also want to avoid conscription into what they consider to be an unjust occupation.

These demographic collapses have caused Russia’s economy to sputter.

Unemployment is at an all-time low of 3.89% as there are not enough people to make up for the jobs available in the country, especially high-skilled ones in large cities. This lack of professionals available will lead to reduced labour efficiency and cause Russian economic growth to stagnate. This pattern will increase as the educated and young members of the labour force leave Russia due to its current political situation.

In addition, the economy will have less purchasing power in the global economy and may not be able to attract multinational investment into Russia’s economy. It will also face an ageing population- a large retired population in need of increased support and a reduced tax base to bear its burden. However much the Putin regime may try to prevent it, this is a natural occurrence and there is nothing to be done to prevent it.

Russia’s political attraction, too, is dwindling. It is hard to maintain an image of power when you can barely fill your ranks. Its hard power will reduce significantly as sanctions imposed by it will not have as large of an effect, and its reducing population will not be able to support a large military to further Russia’s ambitions of expansion.

As Russia’s hard power continues reducing, it will exercise a less important role on the global stage and its legitimacy as a “global superpower” will be further questioned. Russia’s never-ending “operation” in Ukraine will only deteriorate as this crisis continues. Russia’s part in the war, which is likely to continue, will become ever more determined to end the conflict, causing the nation to make reckless decisions. At this stage, the notion of “soft power” is laughable. Russian culture and influence, too, are all slipping away. The nation will have to put in effort in order to produce desired outcomes as its population decreases. There is not a sudden, but a gradual erosion of Russia’s power, which will continue with no end in sight.

The Putin-led regime in Russia will benefit from having a subdued population who fully support the government’s policies. Since a majority of those leaving the country are critical of the regime, there will be a more accepting population, and a reduced chance of revolt or protest against Putin’s autocratic regime. However, this reduction in resistance to their policies can result in the regime making policies that would bankrupt the country and alienate the few citizens left. There is not much the Russian government can do to stop its demographic collapse. Their policies have gotten them into a situation where their population seems to be decreasing every year, and they cannot dig themselves out of this grave. Therefore, they will have to live with their choices and make the best of their situation. All that’s left is to decide: will Russia be a footnote in history or a grim case study on how not to run a country?